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54 Results

Estimating Policy-Neutral Interest Rates for Canada Using a Dynamic Stochastic General-Equilibrium Framework

Staff Working Paper 2004-9 Jean-Paul Lam, Greg Tkacz
In an era when the primary policy instrument is the level of the short-term interest rate, a comparison of that rate with some equilibrium rate can be a useful guide for policy and a convenient method to measure the stance of monetary policy.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E37

Common Trends and Common Cycles in Canadian Sectoral Output

Staff Working Paper 2003-44 Francisco Barillas, Christoph Schleicher
The authors examine evidence of long- and short-run co-movement in Canadian sectoral output data. Their framework builds on a vector-error-correction representation that allows them to test for and compute full-information maximum-likelihood estimates of models with codependent cycle restrictions.

Are Wealth Effects Important for Canada?

Staff Working Paper 2003-30 Lise Pichette, Dominique Tremblay
The authors examine the link between consumption and disaggregate wealth in Canada. They use a vector-error-correction model in which permanent and transitory shocks are identified using the restrictions implied by cointegration proposed by King, Plosser, Stock, and Watson (1991) and Gonzalo and Granger (1995).
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E21

Un modèle « PAC » d'analyse et de prévision des dépenses des ménages américains

Staff Working Paper 2003-13 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde
Traditional structural models cannot distinguish whether changes in activity are a function of altered expectations today or lagged responses to past plans. Polynomial-adjustment-cost (PAC) models remove this ambiguity by explicitly separating observed dynamic behaviour into movements that have been induced by changes in expectations, and responses to expectations, that have been delayed because of adjustment costs.

Shift Contagion in Asset Markets

Staff Working Paper 2003-5 Toni Gravelle, Maral Kichian, James Morley
The authors develop a new methodology to investigate how crises cause the relationship between financial variables to change. Two possible sources of increased co-movement between markets during high-variance episodes are considered: larger common shocks operating through standard market linkages, and a structural change in the propagation of shocks between markets, called "shift contagion."
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