The Macroeconomic Implications of Coholding Staff Working Paper 2024-16 Michael Boutros, Andrej Mijakovic Coholder households simultaneously carry high-cost credit card debt and low-yield cash. We study the implications of this behavior for fiscal and monetary policy, finding that coholder households have smaller consumption responses in the short run but larger responses in the long run. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E44, E6, E62, G, G5, G51
Finding a Needle in a Haystack: A Machine Learning Framework for Anomaly Detection in Payment Systems Staff Working Paper 2024-15 Ajit Desai, Anneke Kosse, Jacob Sharples Our layered machine learning framework can enhance real-time transaction monitoring in high-value payment systems, which are a central piece of a country’s financial infrastructure. When tested on data from Canadian payment systems, it demonstrated potential for accurately identifying anomalous transactions. This framework could help improve cyber and operational resilience of payment systems. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C4, C45, C5, C55, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E42
Endogenous Credibility and Wage-Price Spirals Staff Working Paper 2024-14 Olena Kostyshyna, Tolga Özden, Yang Zhang We quantitively assess the risks of a wage-price spiral occurring in Canada over history. We find the risk of a wage-price spiral increases when the inflation expectations become unanchored and the credibility of central banks declines. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E0, E00, E4, E47, E7
May 13, 2024 CARR publishes illustrative examples on determining fallback rates on floating rate notes that reference CDOR CARR is publishing two presentations to clarify how CARR’s recommended fallback rate for floating rate notes that reference CDOR should be implemented for calculating the coupon and accrued interest post June 2024. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group
Parallel Tempering for DSGE Estimation Staff Working Paper 2024-13 Joshua Brault I develop a population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm known as parallel tempering to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. Parallel tempering approximates the posterior distribution of interest using a family of Markov chains with tempered posteriors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E10
May 10, 2024 Release: Senior Loan Officer Survey 10:30 (ET)The Senior Loan Officer Survey collects information on the business-lending practices of Canadian financial institutions. Content Type(s): Upcoming events
May 9, 2024 Bank of Canada Media Interview – La Presse Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, gave an interview to La Presse’s Hélène Baril. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
May 9, 2024 Bank of Canada Media Interview – Financial Post Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, gave an interview to Barbara Shecter of the Financial Post. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
May 9, 2024 Framework for assessing financial stability Bank staff conduct analysis and research to identify and mitigate systemic risks that might impair the functioning of the financial system. The results are published once a year in the Financial Stability Report.