What Does Structural Analysis of the External Finance Premium Say About Financial Frictions? Staff working paper 2019-38 Jelena Zivanovic I use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) with sign restrictions to provide conditional evidence on the behavior of the US external finance premium (EFP). The results indicate that the excess bond premium, a proxy for the EFP, reacts countercyclically to supply and monetary policy shocks and procyclically to demand shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
A Comprehensive Evaluation of Measures of Core Inflation in Canada: An Update Staff discussion paper 2019-9 Helen Lao, Ceciline Steyn We provide an updated evaluation of the value of various measures of core inflation that could be used in the conduct of monetary policy. We find that the Bank of Canada’s current preferred measures of core inflation—CPI-trim, CPI-median and CPI-common—continue to outperform alternative core measures across a range of criteria. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Financial Frictions, Durable Goods and Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2019-31 Ugochi Emenogu, Leo Michelis Financial frictions affect how much consumers spend on durable and non-durable goods. Borrowers can face both loan-to-value (LTV) constraints and payment-to-income (PTI) constraints. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Are Long-Horizon Expectations (De-)Stabilizing? Theory and Experiments Staff working paper 2019-27 George Evans, Cars Hommes, Isabelle Salle, Bruce McGough Most models in finance assume that agents make trading plans over the infinite future. We consider instead that they are boundedly rational and may only form forecasts over a limited horizon. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Economic models, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D84, E Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The Effects of Inflation Targeting for Financial Development Staff analytical note 2019-21 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Amy (Qijia) Li The adoption of inflation targeting (IT) by central banks leads to an increase of 10 to 20 percent in measures of financial development, with a lag. We also find evidence that the financial sector benefits of IT adoption were higher for early-adopting central banks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Inflation targets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Central Bank Communication That Works: Lessons from Lab Experiments Staff working paper 2019-21 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Luba Petersen We use controlled laboratory experiments to test the causal effects of central bank communication on economic expectations and to distinguish the underlying mechanisms of those effects. In an experiment where subjects learn to forecast economic variables, we find that central bank communication has a stabilizing effect on individual and aggregate outcomes and that the size of the effect varies with the type of communication. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C9, D, D8, D84, E, E3, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Bank Market Power and Central Bank Digital Currency: Theory and Quantitative Assessment Staff working paper 2019-20 Jonathan Chiu, Mohammad Davoodalhosseini, Janet Hua Jiang, Yu Zhu We show that issuing a deposit-like central bank digital currency (CBDC) with a proper interest rate would encourage banks to pay higher interest to keep their customers. Banks would then attract more deposits and offer more loans. Hence, a CBDC would not necessarily crowd out private banking. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update Staff analytical note 2019-11 Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, José Dorich This note provides an update on Bank of Canada staff’s assessment of the Canadian neutral rate. The neutral rate is the policy rate needed to keep output at its potential level and inflation at target once the effects of any cyclical shocks have dissipated. This medium- to long-run concept serves as a benchmark for gauging the degree of monetary stimulus provided by a given policy setting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Labor Mobility in a Monetary Union Staff working paper 2019-15 Daniela Hauser, Martin Seneca The optimal currency literature has stressed the importance of labor mobility as a precondition for the success of monetary unions. But only a few studies formally link labor mobility to macroeconomic adjustment and policy. In this paper, we study macroeconomic dynamics and optimal monetary policy in an economy with cyclical labor flows across two distinct regions that share trade links and a common monetary framework. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Labour markets, Monetary policy framework, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52, F, F4 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Limiting Sender’s Information in Bayesian Persuasion Staff working paper 2019-10 Shota Ichihashi This paper studies how the outcome of Bayesian persuasion depends on a sender’s information. I study a game in which, prior to the sender’s information disclosure, the designer can restrict the most informative signal that the sender can generate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission