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38 Results

The Financial Origins of Non-fundamental Risk

Staff Working Paper 2022-4 Sushant Acharya, Keshav Dogra, Sanjay Singh
We explore the idea that the financial sector can be a source of non-fundamental risk to the rest of the economy. We also consider whether policy can be used to reduce this risk—either by increasing the supply of publicly backed safe assets or by reducing the demand for safe assets.

Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK

Staff Working Paper 2021-55 Sushant Acharya, Edouard Challe, Keshav Dogra
We study optimal monetary policy in an analytically tractable Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model. In the model, the central bank has an incentive to reduce consumption inequality in addition to keeping economic activity at its efficient level and inflation stable.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E30, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63

From He-Cession to She-Stimulus? The Labor Market Impact of Fiscal Policy Across Gender

Staff Working Paper 2021-42 Alica Ida Bonk, Laure Simon
The effects of fiscal policy shocks on labour market outcomes across gender depend on the type of public expenditure. Women benefit most from increases in the government wage bill, while men are the main beneficiaries of higher investment spending.

Fiscal Spillovers: The Case of US Corporate and Personal Income Taxes

Staff Working Paper 2021-41 Madeline Hanson, Daniela Hauser, Romanos Priftis
How do changes to personal and corporate income tax rates in the United States affect its trading partners? Spillover effects from cuts in the two taxes differ. They are generally small and negative for corporate taxes, but sizable and positive for personal income taxes.

The uneven economic consequences of COVID 19: A structural analysis

Staff Analytical Note 2021-17 Martin Kuncl, Austin McWhirter, Alexander Ueberfeldt
Using a structural model, we study the economic consequences of the COVID-19 shock. The uneven consequences, such as higher unemployment among young households, amplify the negative implications for the macroeconomy, household vulnerabilities and consumption inequality. Government support programs have stimulated the economy and lowered inequality and medium-term vulnerabilities.

ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis

ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution.

Monetary Policy, Trends in Real Interest Rates and Depressed Demand

Staff Working Paper 2021-27 Paul Beaudry, Césaire Meh
Over the last few decades, real interest rates have trended downward. The most common explanation is that this reflects depressed demand due to demographic, technological and other real factors. We explore the claim that these trends may have been amplified by certain features of monetary policy.

Shaping the future: Policy shocks and the GDP growth distribution

Can central bank and government policies impact the risks around the outlook for GDP growth? We find that fiscal stimulus makes strong GDP growth more likely—even more so when monetary policy is constrained—rather than weak GDP growth less likely. Thus, fiscal stimulus should accelerate the recovery phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

(Optimal) Monetary Policy with and without Debt

How should policy be designed at high debt levels, when fiscal authorities have little room to adjust taxes? Assigning the monetary authority a role in achieving debt sustainability makes it less effective in stabilizing inflation and output.
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