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Over the last six months, most countries have continued to register strong economic growth.

Canada’s inflation-control targets establish a specific medium-term objective for monetary policy.

The global economy has shown greater strength than was anticipated at the time of the November Report.

The global economy has continued to grow at a robust pace since the July Monetary Policy Report Update.

Standard new trade models depict producers as heterogeneous in total factor productivity. In this paper, I adapt the Eaton and Kortum (2002) model of international trade to incorporate tradable intermediate goods and producer heterogeneity in value-added productivity.

The Canadian economy continues to operate just above its full production capacity, and the near-term outlook for core inflation has moved slightly higher.

The global economy has been unfolding largely as expected, and prospects for continued robust growth are quite favourable, especially over the near term.

I show how to combine large numbers of forecasts using several approaches within the framework of a Bayesian predictive synthesis. I find techniques that choose and combine a handful of forecasts, known as global-local shrinkage priors, perform best.

This is the first in a series of semi-annual reports by the Bank of Canada on Canadian monetary policy.

The Canadian economy continues to adjust to major global developments.