Systemic Risk and Portfolio Diversification: Evidence from the Futures Market Staff Working Paper 2021-50 Radoslav Raykov This paper explores how the Canadian futures market contributed to banks’ systemic risk during the 2008 financial crisis. It finds that core banks as a whole traded against the periphery, in this way increasing their risk of simultaneous losses. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20
December 15, 2016 Monitoring Shadow Banking in Canada: A Hybrid Approach Financial System Review - December 2016 Bo Young Chang, Gitanjali Kumar, André Usche, Michael Januska In Monitoring Shadow Banking in Canada: A Hybrid Approach, Bo Young Chang, Michael Januska, Gitanjali Kumar and André Usche discuss how lending that occurs outside the traditional banking system provides benefits to the economy but must be monitored carefully for potential financial sector vulnerabilities. They describe how the Bank defines and measures shadow banking and how it assesses vulnerabilities in the sector, using an approach that examines both markets and entities. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G23
An Improved Equation for Predicting Canadian Non-Commodity Exports Staff Discussion Paper 2017-1 Patrick Alexander, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Alex Proulx We estimate two new equations for Canadian non-commodity exports (NCX) that incorporate three important changes relative to the current equation used at the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F17
Bond Risk Premia and Gaussian Term Structure Models Staff Working Paper 2014-13 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) show that (i) lagged forward rates improve the predictability of annual bond returns, adding to current forward rates, and that (ii) a Markovian model for monthly forward rates cannot generate the pattern of predictability in annual returns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E47, G, G1, G12
State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models Staff Working Paper 2018-14 Luis Uzeda Implications for signal extraction from specifying unobserved components (UC) models with correlated or orthogonal innovations have been well investigated. In contrast, the forecasting implications of specifying UC models with different state correlation structures are less well understood. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, C5, C51, C53
February 10, 2021 Payments innovation beyond the pandemic Remarks (delivered virtually) Timothy Lane Institute for Data Valorisation Montréal, Quebec Deputy Governor Timothy Lane talks about how the Bank of Canada is contributing to the modernization of our payments ecosystem, and how the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to make payments more convenient for all Canadians. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Cryptocurrencies, Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems
Forecasting Inflation and the Inflation Risk Premiums Using Nominal Yields Staff Working Paper 2012-37 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine We provide a decomposition of nominal yields into real yields, expectations of future inflation and inflation risk premiums when real bonds or inflation swaps are unavailable or unreliable due to their relative illiquidity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E47, G, G1, G12
October 1, 2013 Global Growth and the Prospects for Canada’s Exports Remarks Tiff Macklem Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem discusses global growth and the prospects for Canada’s exports. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Immigration and Provision of Public Goods: Evidence at the Local Level in the U.S. Staff Working Paper 2023-57 Anna Maria Mayda, Mine Z. Senses, Walter Steingress Using U.S. county-level data from 1990 to 2010, we study the causal impact of immigration on the provision of local public goods. We uncover substantial heterogeneity across immigrants with different skills and immigrants of different generations, which leads to unequal fiscal effects across U.S. counties. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy, International topics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): F, F2, F22, H, H4, H41, H7, J, J6, J61, J68, R, R5
Multi-Product Pricing: Theory and Evidence from Large Retailers in Israel Staff Working Paper 2020-12 Marco Bonomo, Carlos Carvalho, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Sigal Ribon, Rodolfo Rigato Standard theories of price adjustment are based on the problem of a single-product firm, and therefore they may not be well suited to analyze price dynamics in the economy with multiproduct firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, D22, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, L, L1, L11