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We expect that potential output in Canada will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and average slightly below 1.7% by 2027 as population growth moderates. Relative to the April 2023 assessment, growth is revised up in 2024, with a larger contribution from trend labour input due to higher-than-anticipated population growth. We revise down our estimates of growth over 2025–26.

This article examines factors that have affected the growth of potential output since the 1950s and presents three possible scenarios for its growth in the future. The authors conclude that there will be a marked slowing in the future growth of potential output as a result of slow population growth and a reduction in labour force participation as the population ages.

In a speech today to the Canadian Society of New York, Bank of Canada Governor Gordon Thiessen talked about Canada’s experience with a floating exchange rate and an independent monetary policy, despite close integration with the much larger U.S. economy.

This paper studies the effects of financial development, taking into account both formal and informal financing. Using cross-country firm-level data, we document that informal financing is utilized more by rich countries than poor countries.

On this occasion, I would like to touch on the Bank's contribution to good economic performance, our emphasis on openness and transparency, and our role in promoting domestic and global financial stability. I will then comment on the Bank's view of current economic conditions and discuss any issues you may wish to raise.

Inactive: Starting with reference month October 2020, the Bank of Canada no longer updates this table.

The global economy has suffered an intense, synchronous recession and considerable excess supply has opened up.

Time-varying capital buffer requirements are a powerful tool that allow bank regulators to avoid severe financial stress without the cost of imposing very high levels of capital. However, this tool is only effective if banks understand how it is used. I present a model that banks and financial market participants can use to anticipate how time-varying capital buffer requirements change over time.

Once a year, the Bank of Canada's Board of Directors meets outside Ottawa, alternating among the provinces. I am delighted that this year's out-of-town meeting has brought us to the beautiful and historic city of Quebec. I would like to take this opportunity to talk to you about recent developments in our economy.

In this article, the authors identify forward rate agreements, or FRAs, as short-term interest rate guarantee instruments negotiated by two parties, one of which is typically a bank. In outlining the main features of FRAs, the authors contrast them with BAX contracts (futures contracts on bankers' acceptances that are negotiated through the Montreal Exchange). The article then describes how market participants use FRAs to cover short-term interest rate risk. The final section deals with the way the Bank of Canada uses information from the FRA market as an indicator of interest rate expectations. Econometric models used to retrieve information from FRA rates, as well as the underlying assumptions, are discussed in an appendix.