September 7, 2012 Dutch Disease Remarks Mark Carney Spruce Meadows Round Table Calgary, Alberta Governor Mark Carney discusses the impact of high commodity prices for the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Global Real Activity for Canadian Exports: GRACE Staff discussion paper 2017-2 André Binette, Tony Chernis, Daniel de Munnik Canadian exports have often disappointed since the Great Recession. The apparent disconnect between exports and the Bank of Canada’s current measure of foreign demand has created an impetus to search for an alternative. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
August 30, 2013 Research Update - August 2013 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
Output Comovement and Inflation Dynamics in a Two-Sector Model with Durable Goods: The Role of Sticky Information and Heterogeneous Factor Markets Staff working paper 2016-36 Tomiyuki Kitamura, Tamon Takamura In a simple two-sector New Keynesian model, sticky prices generate a counterfactual negative comovement between the output of durable and nondurable goods following a monetary policy shock. We show that heterogeneous factor markets allow any combination of strictly positive price stickiness to generate positive output comovement. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
November 8, 1994 The demand for currency and the underground economy Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 1994 Thérèse Laflèche The underground economy in Canada has attracted increased attention over the past few years, yet there is no precise way to measure its size. Recent estimates vary between 4 per cent and 15 per cent of gross domestic product. This article provides an overview of measurement issues and recent estimates. It then focusses on the "monetary" approach to estimating the size of the underground economy. This approach is based on the assumption that the demand for bank notes provides a clue as to the size of the underground economy. The article concludes that estimates that use this approach must be viewed with considerable caution. They are based on a number of assumptions that are difficult to verify and that significantly affect the results. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
May 19, 2011 Supplementary article: Paying with Polymer: Developing Canada’s New Bank Notes Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2011 Charles Spencer In this article, author Charles Spencer reviews the complex process of developing the new series, which represents a dramatic change for Canada. The leading-edge security features made possible by the new substrate, the cost savings of the move to a polymer base and the environmental advantages of the new notes are also examined. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
May 12, 1998 Measurement biases in the Canadian CPI: An update Bank of Canada Review - Spring 1998 Allan Crawford The consumer price index (CPI) is used to measure changes in the price level of consumer goods and services. As an indicator of changes in the cost of living, it is susceptible to various types of measurement biases. This article provides estimates of the size of these biases in the Canadian CPI. It concludes that the rate of increase in the CPI probably overstates the rate of increase in the cost of living by about 0.5 percentage points per year. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019 Staff analytical note 2019-13 Fares Bounajm, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Kristina Hess, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Peter Selcuk This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
April 22, 2009 Monetary Policy Report – April 2009 In an environment of continued high uncertainty, the global recession has intensified and become more synchronous since the Bank’s January Monetary Policy Report Update, with weaker-than-expected activity in all major economies. Errata: The source for Chart 1 (on page 3) is Global Insight, not the Bank of Canada. As well, in chart 15 (on page18), the base year for the exchange rate index CERI excluding the U.S. dollar should read 1992=100, not 1997=100. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
The trade conflict hasn’t derailed supply chains. Here’s why. Sparks at Bank article Raheeb Dastagir, Louis Poirier Global supply chains have been working well despite abrupt shifts in US trade policy and rising global tensions in 2025. A big reason for this is that companies have improved how goods are shipped and warehoused to keep products flowing around the world. But these supply chains could be tested even more if the trade conflict worsens. Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness