Vertical Specialization and Gains from Trade Staff working paper 2017-17 Patrick Alexander Multi-stage production is widely recognized as an important feature of the modern global economy. This feature has been incorporated into many state-of-the-art quantitative trade models, and has been shown to deliver significant additional gains from international trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F14, F6, F60 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
February 12, 2026 Fireside chat with Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada On Thursday, February 12, 2026, Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will participate in a fireside chat at the Rotman Productivity Conference. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
June 30, 2023 Exploring global value and supply chains Patrick Alexander, Chris D'Souza, Yuko Imura, Lena Suchanek The things we buy come out of complex production chains that span the globe. Understanding these connections is crucial for today's economies. Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Subject(s): Currency, Digital currency, Financial system, Financial markets, Fintech, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth
Are Temporary Oil Supply Shocks Real? Staff working paper 2022-52 Johan Brannlund, Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Reinhard Ellwanger Hurricanes disrupt oil production in the Gulf of Mexico because producers shut in oil platforms to safeguard lives and prevent damage. We examine the effects of these temporary oil supply shocks on real economic activity in the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, Q, Q3, Q31, Q4, Q41, Q43 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
A Three‐Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth Staff discussion paper 2017-8 Tony Chernis, Gabriella Velasco, Calista Cheung This paper estimates a three‐frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial gross domestic product (GDP). Canadian provincial GDP is released by Statistics Canada on an annual basis only, with a significant lag (11 months). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E37, R, R1, R11 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
July 24, 2024 Monetary Policy Report—July 2024—Projections Economic growth in Canada is forecast to improve in the second half of 2024 and strengthen further in 2025 and 2026. Core inflation is expected to ease gradually, while the path of CPI inflation will be bumpy.
January 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—January 2026—Projections The outlook for the Canadian economy is evolving largely as anticipated. Economic growth is expected to average around 1¼% over the projection horizon, and inflation remains near 2%.
April 4, 2022 Chartered banks: Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) Quarter-end data on chartered bank HELOCs and related products for residential secured lending whose properties are located in Canada (excluding business loans). Content Type(s): Banking and financial statistics
April 4, 2022 Chartered banks: Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) Quarter-end data on chartered bank HELOCs and related products for residential secured lending whose properties are located in Canada (excluding business loans).