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This newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

Cover page

Roman Antoninianus

The coins form part of the National Currency Collection of the Bank of Canada.
Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa.

This article examines another strategy in the Bank's approach to dealing with an uncertain world: the use of carefully articulated models to produce economic forecasts and to examine the implications of the various risks to those forecasts. Economic models are deliberate simplifications of a complex world that allow economists to make predictions that are reasonably accurate and that can be easily understood and communicated. By using several models, based on competing paradigms, the Bank minimizes policy errors that could result from relying on one view of the world and one philosophy of model design. The authors review some of the models currently used at the Bank, as well as the role of judgment in the projection process.

The invitation is timely, given that the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting agreement with the Canadian government is up for renewal next year. At the Bank, we are always reflecting on our framework, deciding what works well and what we can improve. Against that backdrop, we have watched with interest the debate taking place here in the United States - inside and outside the Federal Reserve - about whether that institution should join the ranks of inflation-targeting central banks.

Governor Tiff Macklem reflects on the lessons learned from the pandemic and its aftermath and outlines how the Bank is preparing for the challenges of the future.

In this issue, Bank researchers discuss the muted recovery from the 2007–09 financial crisis and possible causes. There are also discussions about the Bank’s new Canadian survey of household expectations, measuring both durable goods and housing prices in the CPI and how regulatory changes may affect monetary policy operating frameworks. In the final article, improvements to the management of Canada’s foreign exchange reserves are introduced.

The Canadian economy has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past decade. And it has emerged as a low-inflation economy, with declining levels of public and foreign debt and a private sector that is more cost-conscious, productive, and efficient, thanks to restructuring and investments in new technology.

What path should policy-makers select for the nominal rate when faced with a liquidity trap during which the effective lower bound binds?

The effectiveness of Canada’s inflation-targeting regime, adopted in 1991, is well established, and partly responsible for the strength and relative stability of the Canadian economy, Governor Mark Carney of the Bank of Canada said today. “Over the past twenty years, Canadians have enjoyed a more stable and prosperous economic environment. Even during the recent crisis, […]

Unregulated capital flows are likely excessive during a stagflation episode, owing to a macroeconomic externality operating through the economy’s supply side. Inflows raise domestic wages and cause unwelcome upward pressure on firm costs, yet market forces likely generate such inflows. Optimal capital flow management instead requires net outflows.