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As an economist who worked as a banker for most of his career, Douglas Gibson brought an interesting perspective to public policy issues, to the relationship between government and business, and to the contribution of outside economists to government policies.

This newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

We quantitively assess the risks of a wage-price spiral occurring in Canada over history. We find the risk of a wage-price spiral increases when the inflation expectations become unanchored and the credibility of central banks declines.

Economists' long-standing interest in the degree to which exchange rate movements are reflected in prices was rekindled in the 1970s by a combination of rising inflation and the adoption of more flexible exchange rate regimes in many industrialized countries. Specifically, there were concerns that a large currency depreciation could degenerate into an inflationary spiral. Such fears were curtailed in the 1980s and early 1990s as industrialized countries began to reduce and stabilize their inflation rates. The low-inflation period most industrialized countries entered approximately a decade ago coincided with significant exchange rate depreciations that had much smaller effects on consumer prices than expected. This led to a belief that the extent to which exchange rate movements are passed through to consumer prices has declined. In this article, the authors examine why pass-through could be incomplete and review empirical estimates to determine whether pass-through has indeed declined, suggesting possible reasons for this decline and discussing the implications for monetary policy.

This article examines another strategy in the Bank's approach to dealing with an uncertain world: the use of carefully articulated models to produce economic forecasts and to examine the implications of the various risks to those forecasts. Economic models are deliberate simplifications of a complex world that allow economists to make predictions that are reasonably accurate and that can be easily understood and communicated. By using several models, based on competing paradigms, the Bank minimizes policy errors that could result from relying on one view of the world and one philosophy of model design. The authors review some of the models currently used at the Bank, as well as the role of judgment in the projection process.

The invitation is timely, given that the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting agreement with the Canadian government is up for renewal next year. At the Bank, we are always reflecting on our framework, deciding what works well and what we can improve. Against that backdrop, we have watched with interest the debate taking place here in the United States - inside and outside the Federal Reserve - about whether that institution should join the ranks of inflation-targeting central banks.

Governor Tiff Macklem reflects on the lessons learned from the pandemic and its aftermath and outlines how the Bank is preparing for the challenges of the future.

This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

The Canadian economy has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past decade. And it has emerged as a low-inflation economy, with declining levels of public and foreign debt and a private sector that is more cost-conscious, productive, and efficient, thanks to restructuring and investments in new technology.

Once a year, the Bank of Canada's Board of Directors meets outside Ottawa, alternating among the provinces. I am delighted that this year's out-of-town meeting has brought us to the beautiful and historic city of Quebec. I would like to take this opportunity to talk to you about recent developments in our economy.