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3128 Results

Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol?

Staff working paper 2017-35 Christiane Baumeister, Reinhard Ellwanger, Lutz Kilian
It is commonly believed that the response of the price of corn ethanol (and hence of the price of corn) to shifts in biofuel policies operates in part through market expectations and shifts in storage demand, yet to date it has proved difficult to measure these expectations and to empirically evaluate this view.

How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030

Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast the Chinese economy can grow over the medium term is an important one. This paper addresses this question by examining the evolution of the supply side of the Chinese economy over history and projecting how it will evolve over the next 15 years.

Financial Development Beyond the Formal Financial Market

Staff working paper 2018-49 Lin Shao
This paper studies the effects of financial development, taking into account both formal and informal financing. Using cross-country firm-level data, we document that informal financing is utilized more by rich countries than poor countries.

An Anatomy of Firms’ Political Speech

Staff working paper 2024-37 Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song, Sebastian Sotelo
We study the distribution of political speech across U.S. firms. We develop a measure of political engagement based on firms’ communications (earning calls, regulatory filings, and social media) by training a large language model to identify statements that contain political opinions. Using these data, we document five facts about firms’ political engagement.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D6, D63, G, G4, G41, L, L1, L11, L2, L20 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure

The Causal Impact of Migration on US Trade: Evidence from Political Refugees

Staff working paper 2017-49 Walter Steingress
Immigrants can increase international trade by shifting preferences towards the goods of their country of origin and by reducing bilateral transaction costs. Using geographical variation across U.S. states for the period 2008 to 2013, I estimate the respective causal impact of immigrants on U.S. exports and imports.
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