The Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada: Searching for the Unobservable Staff working paper 2019-13 Dany Brouillette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, Laurence Savoie-Chabot, Pierre St-Amant, Bassirou Gueye, Elise Nelson In this paper, we assess several methods that have been used to measure the Canadian trend unemployment rate (TUR). We also consider improvements and extensions to some existing methods. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C53, E, E2, E24, E27 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax? Staff working paper 2017-50 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou The transmission of oil price shocks has been a question of central interest in macroeconomics since the 1970s. There has been renewed interest in this question after the large and persistent fall in the real price of oil in 2014–16. In the context of this debate, Ramey (2017) makes the striking claim that the existing literature on the transmission of oil price shocks is fundamentally confused about the question of how to quantify the effect of oil price shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, Q, Q4, Q43 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
February 11, 2004 Adjusting to a Changing Economic World Remarks David Dodge Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montréal Montréal, Quebec These are turbulent times, not just for business people, but for all Canadians. We have come through a very difficult year, a year filled with surprises that have challenged us all. At times like these, it is easy to focus on the near-term issues and problems. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
July 12, 2004 Business Outlook Survey - Summer 2004 Businesses are somewhat more optimistic about the outlook than they were in the spring, reflecting increased confidence about the robustness of the global economic recovery. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
October 8, 2004 Business Outlook Survey - Autumn 2004 Businesses remain essentially as optimistic about the economic outlook as they were in the summer survey. Although they have marked down their growth forecast for the U.S. economy, businesses expect stronger domestic demand.Supplemental questions on the appreciation of the Canadian dollar - October 2004 Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
July 10, 2019 Monetary Policy Report – July 2019 The Bank updated its forecast for real economic growth to 1.3 percent this year, 1.9 percent next year and 2.0 percent in 2021. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
January 14, 2008 Business Outlook Survey - Winter 2007-08 Overall, firms remain positive about the outlook, with the results of the winter survey showing little change from those of the autumn survey. Nonetheless, firms reported more uncertainty in light of recent developments, most notably the volatility in the value of the Canadian dollar. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
September 8, 2022 Economic progress report: Restoring price stability Remarks Carolyn Rogers Calgary Economic Development Calgary, Alberta Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers provides an economic update and discusses why the Bank is raising rates fast to tackle high inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
June 2, 2022 Economic progress report: Navigating a high inflation environment Remarks (delivered virtually) Paul Beaudry Gatineau Chamber of Commerce Gatineau, Quebec Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and the importance of keeping inflation expectations well anchored to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
May 4, 2023 Staying the course to price stability Remarks Tiff Macklem Toronto Region Board of Trade Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem explains how monetary policy is working to bring inflation down and outlines the challenges ahead. He also discusses recent stress in the global banking sector and how financial stability and price stability interact. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation