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We propose alternative single-equation semi-structural models for forecasting inflation in Canada, whereby structural New Keynesian models are combined with time-series features in the data. Several marginal cost measures are used, including one that in addition to unit labour cost also integrates relative price shocks known to play an important role in open-economies.

We assess how rising exports of US liquefied natural gas affect the convergence of natural gas prices worldwide. Our results may have implications for the development of future LNG export capacity in Canada.

Of particular concern to monetary policy-makers is the considerable unreliability of financial variables for predicting GDP growth and inflation.

This volume features interesting images and anecdotes about Canada's central bank and its place in Canadian society from 1935 until the present.

We develop a finite-sample procedure to test for mean-variance efficiency and spanning without imposing any parametric assumptions on the distribution of model disturbances.

This volume will take you on a tour of the head office complex, highlighting interesting features of architecture, interior design, and decoration, as well as elements of restoration and preservation. It also features pieces from the Bank's art collection. Soft cover, 128 pages (2007).

Calculating the labour market indicator (LMI) at the provincial level provides useful insights into Canada’s regional economies and reveals differing trends in the state of underlying labour market conditions across provinces. Conclusions based on the Canadian LMI do not necessarily translate to the provinces. In most cases, the correlations between the provincial LMIs and the underlying labour market variables have the expected sign.

Carbon dioxide emissions have been commonly modelled as rising and falling with total output. Yet many factors, such as energy-efficiency improvements and shifts to cleaner energy, can break this relationship. We evaluate these factors using US data and find that changes in energy efficiency of consumption goods explain a significant proportion of emissions fluctuations. This finding also implies that models that omit energy efficiency likely overestimate the trade-off between environmental protection and economic performance.

The intertemporal approach to the current account suggests modeling movements in the current account in a forward-looking, dynamic framework. In this framework, the current account reflects consumption smoothing of agents that lend and borrow from the rest of the world in the face of transitory shocks to income.

Financial frictions affect how much consumers spend on durable and non-durable goods. Borrowers can face both loan-to-value (LTV) constraints and payment-to-income (PTI) constraints.