Staff working papers

The authors present an empirical model to forecast short-run inventory investment behaviour for Canada.

The author empirically tests two aspects of the interaction between financial variables and inventory investment: negative cash flow and finance constraints due to asymmetric information.

In two recent papers, Jensen (2002) and Walsh (2003), using a hybrid New Keynesian model, demonstrate that a regime that targets either nominal income growth or the change in the output gap can effectively replicate the outcome under commitment and hence reduce the size of the stabilization bias.

The authors compute welfare-maximizing Taylor rules in a dynamic general-equilibrium model of a small open economy.

The authors examine the evidence presented by Galí and Gertler (1999) and Galí, Gertler, and Lopez-Salido (2001, 2003) that the inflation dynamics in the United States can be well-described by the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC).

The authors apply the asset-valuation model developed by Rabinovitch (1989) to six publicly traded Canadian banks over the period 1982–2002.

Counterfeiting is a significant public policy issue, because paper money, despite rumours of its demise, remains an important part of our payments system.

Social learning models of investment provide an interesting explanation for sudden changes in investment behaviour.

Inflation forecasting is fundamental to monetary policy. In practice, however, economists are faced with competing goals: accuracy and theoretical consistency.

The authors conduct a counterfactual simulation of the proposed rules under the new Basel Capital Accord (Basel II), including the revised treatment of expected and unexpected credit losses proposed by the Basel Committee in October 2003.