Staff working papers

Suppose that the dynamics of the macroeconomy were given by (partly) random fluctuations between two equilibria: "good" and "bad."

The authors document the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian model for Canada.

The authors introduce new measures of important underlying macroeconomic phenomena that affect the financial side of the economy.

The authors address empirically the implications of structural breaks in the variance-covariance matrix of inflation and import prices for changes in pass-through.

The author empirically assesses the effects of institutional and political factors on the need and willingness of governments to make large fiscal adjustments.

The author compares the performance of three Gaussian approximation methods - by Nowman (1997), Shoji and Ozaki (1998), and Yu and Phillips (2001) - in estimating a model of the nonlinear continuous-time short-term interest rate.

The authors investigate the behaviour of core inflation in Canada to analyze three key issues: (i) homogeneity in the response of various price indexes to demand or real exchange rate shocks relative to the response of aggregate core inflation; (ii) whether using disaggregate data helps to improve the forecast of core inflation; and (iii) whether using monthly data helps to improve quarterly forecasts.

The author provides an overview of the 1975–78 Anti-Inflation Program (AIP), in a background document prepared for a seminar organized by the Bank of Canada to mark the AIP's 30th anniversary.

Most financial markets allow investors to submit both limit and market orders, but it is not always clear what affects the choice of order type.

The author proposes and evaluates econometric models that try to explain and forecast real quarterly housing expenditures in Canada. Structural and leading-indicator models of the Canadian housing sector are described.