Staff research

Supply disruptions were a key driver of inflation during the pandemic. If such disruptions occur more often in the future, they could lead to more frequent and persistent periods of high inflation. Central banks could then find it harder to bring inflation back to target while supporting economic activity.

We present a measure of account-level credit card spending constructed using credit bureau microdata, capturing monthly spending for approximately 80% of adults in Canada. Our measure offers higher frequency than other publicly available consumption metrics, and can be disaggregated by age, geographic location and credit history.

We share insights about non-bank financial intermediation in Canada in 2024. These data were collected as part of the Bank of Canada’s contribution to the Financial Stability Board’s Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation.

This study investigates how extreme flood events can indirectly impact the global supply chain through production disruptions. The findings emphasize that the size of inventories is crucial; a lean-inventory system leads to faster shock propagation, higher losses, and fewer recoveries compared to an abundant-inventory system.

As businesses worldwide are adopting artificial intelligence to boost productivity, little has been known about how businesses in Canada are using it. Survey results from the Bank of Canada show that AI adoption remains at an early stage for many Canadian businesses. As well, businesses expect AI to affect capital spending and employment, but only gradually.

This paper shows that consumption activities toward which households reallocate more time in recessions see larger expenditure declines, revealing a systematic link between time-use and expenditure cyclicality. A two-sector New Keynesian model shows this time-expenditure substitution explains roughly forty percent of consumption's response to monetary policy shocks.

The 2025 Methods-of-Payment Survey provides insights into how Canadians pay for their day-to-day purchases and how they use cash (i.e. banknotes and coins). While contactless card payments dominate in-person transactions, most Canadians maintain favourable views on cash and still hold and use it. They are also increasingly adopting mobile payments.

In this note we examine how monetary policy affects housing demand, supply and prices in Canada, and whether these effects vary with labour market conditions

AI has the potential to reshape the labour market by automating some tasks for many workers. Even though evidence of a significant impact on the labour market remains limited, AI appears to be making it harder for some Canadians to find work in occupations that are most exposed to it.

Private credit—business loans made by non-bank lenders—has expanded rapidly worldwide, but for Canadian businesses, it remains a stable and relatively limited source of funding. Canadian asset managers, however, are actively participating in private credit globally, creating exposures that could matter for financial stability in Canada.