December 23, 2003
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768
result(s)
December 22, 2003
Current Account Imbalances: Some Key Issues for the Major Industrialized Countries
The resurgence of sizable current account imbalances in the major economies in recent years, particularly the tripling of the U.S. deficit, has led to renewed academic and public discussions about their sustainability. Jacob's main objective is to show that current account balances are simply the outcome of various relative structural and cyclical forces between trading partners. He reviews the factors behind the changes in the current account positions of the three largest industrial economies (the United States, Japan, and the euro area). Two strong determinants shaping the current account balances are the faster increase in U.S. productivity compared with that of other major economies and, more recently, the loosening in the U.S. fiscal stance. Jacob also reviews a range of outside assessments from such sources as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the International Monetary Fund, as well as the academic literature, to determine the possible risks to macroeconomic and financial stability.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Exchange rates,
International topics
Common Trends and Common Cycles in Canadian Sectoral Output
Staff Working Paper 2003-44
Francisco Barillas,
Christoph Schleicher
The authors examine evidence of long- and short-run co-movement in Canadian sectoral output data. Their framework builds on a vector-error-correction representation that allows them to test for and compute full-information maximum-likelihood estimates of models with codependent cycle restrictions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C15,
C2,
C22,
C3,
C32,
E,
E3,
E32
Poignée de main invisible et persistance des cycles économiques : une revue de la littérature
Staff Working Paper 2003-40
Christian Calmès
The author explains how self-enforcing labour contracts can enhance the performance of macroeconomic models. He exposes the benefits of using these dynamic contracts to account for some puzzling macroeconomic facts regarding the dynamics and persistence of employment, consumption and output.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E12,
E4,
E49,
J,
J3,
J30,
J31,
J4,
J41
November 22, 2003
Recent Labour Market Developments in Canada
In the year and a half leading up to mid-2003, both employment and labour force participation increased at an unusually rapid pace compared to domestic economic activity. Gains in employment were unusually large, relative to output growth, compared to gains in total hours worked. This is explained by a faster rate of increase in the participation rate of the 55 and older age group, many of whom opted for part-time employment. This shift in the composition of employment contributed to a reduction in the length of the average workweek in 2002. As a result, labour input progressed at a rate that was markedly slower than for employment and more in line with its historical relationship to output growth. The authors anticipate that the 55 and older age group will continue to participate strongly in the labour force, but that as the economy rebounds and uncertainty diminishes, the cyclical component in the growth of part-time work should diminish and that of full-time employment increase. Employment growth should moderate in relation to output growth and there may be a cyclical rebound in labour productivity as total hours worked increases during the initial recovery in output growth.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Labour markets
The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting
Staff Working Paper 2003-32
Frédérick Demers
Phillips curves are generally estimated under the assumption of linearity and parameter constancy. Linear models of inflation, however, have recently been criticized for their poor forecasting performance.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C52,
E,
E3,
E31
Income Trusts - Understanding the Issues
Staff Working Paper 2003-25
Michael R. King
An income trust is an investment vehicle that distributes cash generated by a set of operating assets in a tax-efficient manner. The market capitalization of income trusts has grown rapidly over the past two years, reaching $45 billion at year-end 2002.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G12,
G3
Essays on Financial Stability
Technical Report No. 95
John Chant,
Alexandra Lai,
Mark Illing,
Fred Daniel
The four essays published here provide a useful overview for anyone interested in understanding the issues and policy environment surrounding financial system stability.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
G,
G2,
G28
August 21, 2003
Dollarization in Canada: An Update
The authors describe a special survey of the payment and financial-reporting practices of Canadian firms conducted by the Bank of Canada's regional offices to determine if the U.S. dollar has started to displace the Canadian dollar as a preferred unit of account. A cross-section of firms was asked what currency (or currencies) they used: (i) for quoting sales to Canadian customers, (ii) for quoting prices to foreigners, (iii) for reporting their financial results, and (iv) for quoting salaries and wages. The survey results reported here extend some earlier results reported in a previous Review article by Murray and Powell. The data indicate that, despite the dominance of the U.S. dollar in world trade and as an international standard of value, use of the U.S. dollar in Canada is very limited. The vast majority of Canadian firms price their products and keep their financial statements in Canadian dollars, and very few workers in Canada have their salaries paid in a foreign currency. The Canadian dollar is still strongly preferred for most pricing and financial-reporting activities in Canada, and there is very little evidence of "dollarization."
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Exchange rate regimes
Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices
Staff Working Paper 2003-24
René Lalonde,
Zhenhua Zhu,
Frédérick Demers
The authors develop simple econometric models to analyze and forecast two components of the Bank of Canada commodity price index: the Bank of Canada non-energy (BCNE) commodity prices and the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price. They present different methodologies to identify transitory and permanent components of movements in these prices.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5