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1290 result(s)

Modélisation et prévision du taux de change réel effectif américain

Staff Working Paper 2003-3 René Lalonde, Patrick Sabourin
This study describes a simple model for predicting the real U.S. exchange rate. Starting with a large number of error-correction models, the authors choose the one giving the best out-of-sample forecasts over the period 1992Q3–2002Q1.

Managing Operational Risk in Payment, Clearing, and Settlement Systems

Staff Working Paper 2003-2 Kim McPhail
Awareness of operational risk has increased greatly in recent years, both at individual financial institutions and for payment, clearing, and settlement systems (PCSS). PCSS consist of networks of interconnected elements (i.e., central operators, participants, and settlement agents); operational problems at any one of the key elements have the potential to disrupt the system as a whole and negatively affect financial stability.

Banking Crises and Contagion: Empirical Evidence

Staff Working Paper 2003-1 Eric Santor
Recent events, such as the East Asian, Mexican, Scandinavian, and Argentinian crises, have sparked considerable interest in exploring how shocks experienced by one country can spread vis-à-vis real and nominal links to other countries' banking systems. Given the large costs associated with banking-system failures, both economists and policy-makers are interested in predicting the onset of banking crises and assessing the likelihood of contagion during crisis events.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, G, G2, G20

Oil-Price Shocks and Retail Energy Prices in Canada

Staff Working Paper 2002-38 Marwan Chacra
The effects of global energy-price shocks on retail energy prices in Canada are examined. More specifically, the author looks at the response of the consumer price indexes for gasoline, heating oil, natural gas, and electricity in Canada to movements in world crude oil prices.
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