Jocelyn Jacob - Latest

• The Evolution of Canada’s Global Export Market Share

  Staff Working Paper 2012-31 Daniel de Munnik, Jocelyn Jacob, Wesley Sze

  Following gains during the 1990s, Canada’s global market share of goods exports has declined markedly in recent years. In this regard, the constant market share analysis framework is used to decompose changes in Canada’s global market share into competitiveness and structural effects over the 1990‐2010 period, as well as to draw some comparisons to a number of other countries.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43

• Le pouvoir de prévision des indices PMI

  Staff Discussion Paper 2010-3 Claudia Godbout, Jocelyn Jacob

  The forecast of world economic growth plays a key role in the conduct of Canadian monetary policy. In this context, the authors study the usefulness of the monthly Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) in predicting short-term real GDP growth in the euro area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and China, as well as in the world economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, F, F4, F47
• December 22, 2003

  Current Account Imbalances: Some Key Issues for the Major Industrialized Countries

  Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2003-2004 Jocelyn Jacob

  The resurgence of sizable current account imbalances in the major economies in recent years, particularly the tripling of the U.S. deficit, has led to renewed academic and public discussions about their sustainability. Jacob's main objective is to show that current account balances are simply the outcome of various relative structural and cyclical forces between trading partners. He reviews the factors behind the changes in the current account positions of the three largest industrial economies (the United States, Japan, and the euro area). Two strong determinants shaping the current account balances are the faster increase in U.S. productivity compared with that of other major economies and, more recently, the loosening in the U.S. fiscal stance. Jacob also reviews a range of outside assessments from such sources as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the International Monetary Fund, as well as the academic literature, to determine the possible risks to macroeconomic and financial stability.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics
• November 14, 1997

  European economic and monetary union: Background and implications

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 1997 Chantal Dupasquier, Jocelyn Jacob

  The European Union, which currently consists of 15 states, occupies an important place among the advanced economies. The final stage of the European economic and monetary union (EMU) is scheduled to begin in January 1999 with the adoption of a common currency called the "euro." A decision on which countries will participate in the euro area in 1999 will be made next spring based in part on the achievement of the economic criteria laid out in the Maastricht Treaty. In this article, the authors, after a brief discussion of the historical background, cast some light on the institutional aspects of the EMU, on the formulation and implementation of economic policy, as well as on the internal and external effects of EMU completion. For Canada, the direct implications of the shift to the euro appear to be relatively modest, at least in the short run.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments
• August 10, 1996

  Inflation expectations and Real Return Bonds

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 1996 Agathe Côté, Jocelyn Jacob, John Nelmes, Miles Whittingham

  The existence of a market for Real Return Bonds in Canada provides a direct tool with which to measure market expectations of inflation by comparing the yields on these bonds with those on conventional Government of Canada long-term bonds. However, there are other factors besides inflation expectations that may affect the yield differential. After reviewing these factors, the authors note that they can lead to a potentially large bias in the level of inflation expectations. The changes in the differential over time may, nonetheless, be a good indicator of movements in long-run inflation expectations. Based on this measure, expectations of long-run inflation have declined since late 1994.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Interest rates