Geoffrey Dunbar is a Senior Research Advisor in the International Economic Analysis Department at the Bank of Canada. His research focuses on both applied microeconomics and macroeconomics with a current interest on the effects of extreme weather events for commodities and trade. Previous research interests have included exchange rates and the role of family demographics on inequality and productivity. He received his PhD in economics from Queen’s University.
I quantify the importance of changes in household preferences on household inflation rates using 11 years of scanner data for 11,000 US households. My results suggest that changes in household preferences are an important driver of inflation dynamics at the household level.
This paper quantifies the impact of hurricanes on seaborne international trade to the United States. Matching the timing of hurricane–trade route intersections with monthly U.S. port-level trade data, we isolate the unanticipated effects of a hurricane hitting a trade route using two separate identification schemes: an event study and a local projection.
Hurricanes disrupt oil production in the Gulf of Mexico because producers shut in oil platforms to safeguard lives and prevent damage. We examine the effects of these temporary oil supply shocks on real economic activity in the United States.
Do technological improvements mitigate the potential damages from extreme weather events? We show that hurricanes lower offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and that stronger storms have larger impacts. Regulations enacted in 1980 that required improved offshore construction standards only modestly mitigated the production losses.
The adoption of inflation targeting (IT) by central banks leads to an increase of 10 to 20 percent in measures of financial development, with a lag. We also find evidence that the financial sector benefits of IT adoption were higher for early-adopting central banks.
Weather the Storms? Hurricane Technology and Oil Production (with J. Brannlund, R. Ellwanger and M. Krutkiewicz), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2023, 122 (October).
Uncovered Return Parity: Equity Returns and Currency Returns (with E Djeutem), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2022, 128 (November).
Identification of Random Resource Shares in Collective Households Without Preference Similarity Restrictions (with A. Lewbel and K. Pendakur), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2021, 39:2, 402-421.
The Mode is the Message: Using Predata as Exclusion Restrictions to Evaluate Survey Design (with Heng Chen and Rallye Shen), Advances in Econometrics: Essays in Honor of Chong Hsiao, 2020, Vol 41.
Demographics and the Demand for Currency, Empirical Economics, 2018, doi.org/10.1007/s00181-018-1486-8.
Rationalizing Irrational Beliefs (with Ruqu Wang and Xiaoting Wang), Theoretical Economics Letters, 2016, vol. 6, 1219-1229. doi: 10.4236/tel.2016.66115.
"Seasonal adjustment, demography, and GDP growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, Vol. 46(3), pages 811-835, August 2013.
"Working parents and total factor productivity growth," Journal of Population Economics, (with Stephen Easton). Springer, Vol. 26(4), pages 1431-1456, October 2013.
"The Family and Medical Leave Act and the labor productivity of parents," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Vol. 118(2), pages 334-336, 2013.
"Returns-to-scale and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Vol. 37(9), pages 1736-1754, 2013.
"Children's Resources in Collective Households: Identification, Estimation, and an Application to Child Poverty in Malawi," (with Arthur Lewbel and Krishna Pendakur), American Economic Review, American Economic Association, Vol. 103(1), pages 438-71, February, 2013.
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