C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
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Durées d'utilisation des facteurs et fonction de production : une estimation par la méthode des moments généralisés en système
Although a number of studies have demonstrated the importance of the degree of factor utilization in economic analysis, the impact of the durations of utilization in a production function remains largely unknown, particularly in terms of the duration of equipment utilization. -
Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves Using Exact Methods
The authors use simple new finite-sample methods to test the empirical relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) equation. -
Estimating Policy-Neutral Interest Rates for Canada Using a Dynamic Stochastic General-Equilibrium Framework
In an era when the primary policy instrument is the level of the short-term interest rate, a comparison of that rate with some equilibrium rate can be a useful guide for policy and a convenient method to measure the stance of monetary policy. -
Structural Change and Forecasting Long-Run Energy Prices
The authors test the statistical significance of Pindyck's (1999) suggested class of econometric equations that model the behaviour of long-run real energy prices. -
Modélisation « PAC » du secteur extérieur de l'économie américaine
In this paper, the authors use polynomial adjustment cost (PAC) models to analyze and forecast the main components of the U.S. trade sector. -
Exact Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy with an Application to the Term Structure of Interest Rates
The author proposes a class of exact tests of the null hypothesis of exchangeable forecast errors and, hence, of the hypothesis of no difference in the unconditional accuracy of two competing forecasts. -
Common Trends and Common Cycles in Canadian Sectoral Output
The authors examine evidence of long- and short-run co-movement in Canadian sectoral output data. Their framework builds on a vector-error-correction representation that allows them to test for and compute full-information maximum-likelihood estimates of models with codependent cycle restrictions. -
The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting
Phillips curves are generally estimated under the assumption of linearity and parameter constancy. Linear models of inflation, however, have recently been criticized for their poor forecasting performance. -
Are Wealth Effects Important for Canada?
The authors examine the link between consumption and disaggregate wealth in Canada. They use a vector-error-correction model in which permanent and transitory shocks are identified using the restrictions implied by cointegration proposed by King, Plosser, Stock, and Watson (1991) and Gonzalo and Granger (1995).