C18 - Methodological Issues: General

• Core inflation over the COVID-19 pandemic

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-17 Mikael Khan, Elyse Sullivan

  We assess the usefulness of various measures of core inflation over the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that Cpi-trim and CPI-median provided the best signal of underlying inflation. The favourable performance of these measures stems from their lack of reliance on historical experience, an especially valuable feature in unprecedented times.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, E, E3, E31

• Examining recent revisions to CPI-common

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-15 Elyse Sullivan

  Unusually large revisions to CPI-common in recent months stem from increased common movements across consumer price index components amid broad inflationary pressures. With recent revisions, CPI-common is more closely aligned with the Bank of Canada’s other two preferred measures of core inflation. However, caution is necessary when interpreting real-time estimates of CPI-common in the current environment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C18, E, E3, E31

• Networking the Yield Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2021-4 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Julia Schaumburg, Tatevik Sekhposyan

  We study how different monetary policies affect the yield curve and interact. Our study highlights the importance of the spillover structure across the yield curve for policy-making.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, C2, C21, C5, C53, E, E4, E43, E44, E5, E52

• Characterizing the Canadian Financial Cycle with Frequency Filtering Approaches

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-34 Andrew Lee-Poy

  In this note, I use two multivariate frequency filtering approaches to characterize the Canadian financial cycle by capturing fluctuations in the underlying variables with respect to a long-term trend. The first approach is a dynamically weighted composite, and the second is a stochastic cycle model.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C13, C14, C18, C3, C32, C5, C51, C52, E, E3, E32, E6, E66, G, G0, G01, G1, G18

• Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails

  Staff Working Paper 2018-50 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Tatevik Sekhposyan

  We document a strong asymmetry in the evolution of federal funds rate expectations and map this observed asymmetry into measures of monetary policy uncertainty. We show that periods of monetary policy tightening and easing are distinctly related to downside (policy rate is higher than expected) and upside (policy rate is lower than expected) uncertainty.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, C3, C32, E, E0, E02, E4, E43, E5, E52

• Noisy Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2018-23 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Luca Gambetti

  We introduce limited information in monetary policy. Agents receive signals from the central bank revealing new information (“news") about the future evolution of the policy rate before changes in the rate actually take place. However, the signal is disturbed by noise.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, C3, C32, E, E0, E02, E4, E43, E5, E52

• Persistent Leverage in Portfolio Sorts: An Artifact of Measurement Error?

  Staff Working Paper 2014-55 Michael Mueller

  Studies such as Lemmon, Roberts and Zender (2008) demonstrate how stable firms’ capital structures are over time, and raise the question of whether new theories of capital structure are needed to explain these phenomena.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, G, G3, G32

• Méthodologie de construction de séries de taux de défaut pour l’industrie canadienne

  Staff Discussion Paper 2013-2 Ramdane Djoudad, Étienne Bordeleau

  Default rates are series commonly used in stress testing. In Canada, as in many other countries, there are no historical series available for sectoral default rates on bank loans to firms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C18, G, G2, G21, G3, G33