D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
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Finding a Needle in a Haystack: A Machine Learning Framework for Anomaly Detection in Payment Systems
Our layered machine learning framework can enhance real-time transaction monitoring in high-value payment systems, which are a central piece of a country’s financial infrastructure. When tested on data from Canadian payment systems, it demonstrated potential for accurately identifying anomalous transactions. This framework could help improve cyber and operational resilience of payment systems. -
How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty
The uncertainty regarding inflation that is observed in density forecasts of households and professionals helps macroeconomists understand the formation mechanism of inflation expectations. Shocks to inflation take time to be perceived by all agents in the economy, and such rigidity is lower in a high-inflation environment. -
The Role of Long-Term Contracting in Business Lending
This paper examines inefficiencies arising from a lack of long-term contracting in small business lending in China. -
2022 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report: Cash Use Over 13 Years
We present results from the 2022 Methods-of-Payment Survey, including updated payment shares based on a three-day shopping diary. We also assess various factors associated with long-term trends in cash use.