G2 - Financial Institutions and Services

• Consumers’ Path to Mortgage Delinquency

  Staff analytical paper 2026-3 Laura Zhao, Jia Qi Xiao, Aidan Witts

  Analyzing TransUnion data from 2015–2024, this study identifies a systematic timeline of distress where rising credit utilization and non-mortgage arrears precede mortgage delinquency by up to two years. This deterioration intensifies in the final six months, providing a robust suite of high-frequency indicators for monitoring emerging household stress.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G2, G21, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit