International topics

• April 26, 2016

  A New Balance Point: Global Trade, Productivity and Economic Growth

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Investment Industry Association of Canada and Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association New York, New York

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz talks about slowing international trade growth and the implications for productivity and the global economy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics, International topics, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration

• What to Expect When China Liberalizes Its Capital Account

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-10 Mark Kruger, Gurnain Pasricha

  When China joined the World Trade Organization in December 2001, it marked a watershed for the world economy. Ten years from now, the opening of China’s capital account and the financial integration that will unfold will be viewed as a milestone of similar importance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rate regimes, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F32, G, G1, G18

• A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices with an Application to Crude Oil

  Staff Working Paper 2016-18 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian

  Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, D, D8, D84, G, G1, G14, Q, Q4, Q43
• April 5, 2016

  China’s Great Transition: What It Means for Canada

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins discusses the risks and opportunities for Canada of China’s economic transition.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Financial stability, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Trade integration

• How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030

  Staff Working Paper 2016-15 Jeannine Bailliu, Mark Kruger, Argyn Toktamyssov, Wheaton Welbourn

  Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast the Chinese economy can grow over the medium term is an important one. This paper addresses this question by examining the evolution of the supply side of the Chinese economy over history and projecting how it will evolve over the next 15 years.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E23, E3, E32, O4