Lori Rennison was appointed Senior Policy Director in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department in April 2016.
Ms. Rennison joined the Bank in 2007 as Senior Representative (Economics) in the Regional Analysis Division of the Bank of Canada’s Canadian Economic Analysis Department. Between 2011 and 2014, she was Assistant Chief of the division and was responsible for directing and managing the economic analysis activities of the Bank’s five regional offices (Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, Montréal and Halifax). This work included publishing the quarterly Business Outlook Survey, conducting economic research and supporting the Bank’s communications strategy.
She later took on the role of Senior Policy Adviser in the International Economic Analysis Department. In this capacity, she participated in and oversaw the department’s contribution to the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report. In addition, she conducted analysis and research on current international economic issues and monetary policy more generally.
Ms. Rennison worked previously at the Department of Finance as Chief and Senior Economist in the Canadian Demand and Labour section and later as Chief, U.S. Economic Analysis and Forecasting. She began her career in the Micro-Economic Policy Analysis Division of Industry Canada.
Ms. Rennison was born in Carlisle, Ontario. She has a master’s degree in economics from the University of Victoria, and a bachelor of commerce degree in Management Economics in Industry and Finance from the University of Guelph.
Ms. Rennison is based in the Bank’s Vancouver Regional Office.
Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors.
Forward guidance is one of the policy tools that a central bank can implement if it seeks to provide additional monetary stimulus when it is operating at the effective lower bound (ELB) on interest rates. It became more widely used during and after the global financial crisis.
At a time when the Bank is expecting a rotation of demand toward exports and investment, and transformative global trends are placing increasing emphasis on innovation, technology and organizational learning, an understanding of the competitiveness strategies of Canadian firms and the factors affecting them has become particularly relevant. This article summarizes findings from a Bank of Canada survey of 151 firms designed to extract signals on elements of firm strategy and organizational capital in order to help inform the macroeconomic outlook.
This article reviews recent work that uses principal-component analysis to extract information common to indicators from the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS). The authors use correlation analysis and an out-of-sample forecasting exercise to assess and compare the information content of the principal component with that of responses to key individual survey questions on growth in real gross domestic product and in real business investment. Results suggest that summarizing the common movements among BOS indicators may provide useful information for forecasting near-term growth in business investment. For growth in real gross domestic product, however, the survey’s balance of opinion on future sales growth appears to be more informative.