Recent economic and financial developments

• September 27, 2017

  The Meaning of “Data Dependence”: An Economic Progress Report

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz St. John’s Board of Trade St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how unknowns in Canada’s inflation outlook have made the Bank’s monetary policy particularly data dependent.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments

• A Dynamic Factor Model for Commodity Prices

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-12 Doga Bilgin, Reinhard Ellwanger

  In this note, we present the Commodities Factor Model (CFM), a dynamic factor model for a large cross-section of energy and non-energy commodity prices. The model decomposes price changes in commodities into a common “global” component, a “block” component confined to subgroups of economically related commodities and an idiosyncratic price shock component.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, Q, Q0, Q02
• September 18, 2017

  How Canada’s International Trade is Changing with the Times

  Remarks Timothy Lane Saskatoon Regional Economic Development Authority Saskatoon, Saskatchewan

  Deputy Governor Timothy Lane discusses the changing nature of international trade and the factors that are propelling it.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration

• Do Canadian Broker-Dealers Act as Agents or Principals in Bond Trading?

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-11 Daniel Hyun, Jesse Johal, Corey Garriott

  Technology, risk tolerance and regulation may influence dealers to reduce their trading as principals (using their own balance sheets for sales and purchases of securities) in favour of agency trading (matching client trades).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1

• Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol?

  Staff Working Paper 2017-35 Christiane Baumeister, Reinhard Ellwanger, Lutz Kilian

  It is commonly believed that the response of the price of corn ethanol (and hence of the price of corn) to shifts in biofuel policies operates in part through market expectations and shifts in storage demand, yet to date it has proved difficult to measure these expectations and to empirically evaluate this view.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): Q, Q1, Q18, Q2, Q28, Q4, Q42, Q5, Q58