Exchange rates

• May 18, 2002

  Foreign Takeovers and the Canadian Dollar: Evidence and Implications

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2002 Lawrence L. Schembri

  Since 1995, acquisitions of foreign firms by Canadian residents and acquisitions of Canadian firms by foreign residents have increased. Through most of this period, the dollar has depreciated, but the cumulative net balance of foreign direct investment acquisition flows has remained close to zero. The recent upward trend in bilateral acquisition flows is part of the globalization process as firms consolidate and rationalize their operations, and is not related to the value of the Canadian dollar. Standard models of international asset pricing imply that there should not be a relationship between the Canadian exchange rate and foreign takeovers of Canadian firms because an exchange rate movement does not give foreign buyers a systematic advantage over domestic buyers. Purchases of domestic firms by foreign residents are likely to be welfare-improving. Transactions between foreign and domestic residents are voluntary, and they imply that the foreign buyers expect to obtain higher profits from the firms' assets.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Exchange rates
• November 15, 2001

  Conference Summary: Revisiting the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2001 Lawrence L. Schembri

  This article summarizes the proceedings of an international research conference hosted by the Bank of Canada in November 2000. The conference marked the fiftieth anniversary of Canada's adoption of a flexible exchange rate, and its title recognizes the seminal contribution of Professor Milton Friedman's article "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates." His keynote address to the conference is also summarized in the article. The conference papers re-examine many of the arguments raised by Friedman using recent developments in economic theory and econometric techniques. They investigate the experience of a wide range of industrialized and emerging-market economies. The main findings are that a strong case can be made for flexible exchange rates in economies that are large commodity exporters and that have credible low-inflation monetary policies and relatively well-developed financial systems.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates
• December 15, 1999

  The Exchange Rate, Productivity, and the Standard of Living

  Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1999–2000 Robert Lafrance, Lawrence L. Schembri

  This article examines the recent proposition that the decline in Canada's standard of living relative to that of the United States is causally related to the decline in our exchange rate. The authors explore the main channels through which the exchange rate and the standard of living could be related—productivity and the terms of trade—focusing mainly on productivity. They conclude that the decline in world commodity prices and weak demand for domestic output were affecting both Canada's standard of living and the exchange rate and that the flexible exchange rate regime itself did not play an independent role.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Exchange rates
• November 14, 1999

  Real Exchange Rate Indexes for the Canadian Dollar

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 1999 Robert Lafrance, Pierre St-Amant

  In this article, the authors explain the methodology used to construct real exchange rate (RER) indexes. They also compare and assess various Canadian RER indexes from both an empirical and conceptual standpoint. The authors conclude that both theory and empirical evidence suggest that the best RER indexes are those based on unit labour costs. They note, however, that, for practical reasons, policy-makers should also consider RER indexes based on prices when formulating monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Exchange rates
• November 13, 1998

  Currency crises and fixed exchange rates in the 1990s: A review

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 1998 Patrick Osakwe, Lawrence L. Schembri

  Currency crises in the 1990s, especially those in emerging markets, have sharply disrupted economic activity, affecting not only the country experiencing the crisis, but also those with trade, investment, and geographic links. The authors review the theoretical literature and empirical evidence regarding these crises. They conclude that their primary cause is a fixed nominal exchange rate combined with macroeconomic imbalances, such as current account or fiscal deficits, that the market perceives as unsustainable at the prevailing real exchange rate. They also conclude that currency crises can be prevented through the adoption of sound monetary and fiscal policies, effective regulation and supervision of the financial sector, and a more flexible nominal exchange rate.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Exchange rates
• November 14, 1997

  European economic and monetary union: Background and implications

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 1997 Chantal Dupasquier, Jocelyn Jacob

  The European Union, which currently consists of 15 states, occupies an important place among the advanced economies. The final stage of the European economic and monetary union (EMU) is scheduled to begin in January 1999 with the adoption of a common currency called the "euro." A decision on which countries will participate in the euro area in 1999 will be made next spring based in part on the achievement of the economic criteria laid out in the Maastricht Treaty. In this article, the authors, after a brief discussion of the historical background, cast some light on the institutional aspects of the EMU, on the formulation and implementation of economic policy, as well as on the internal and external effects of EMU completion. For Canada, the direct implications of the shift to the euro appear to be relatively modest, at least in the short run.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments
• December 11, 1996

  The impact of exchange rate movements on consumer prices

  Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1996-1997 Thérèse Laflèche

  In the first, mostly theoretical, part of this article, the author analyses the factors that affect the pass-through of exchange rate movements to consumer prices. In the second part, she studies the recent Canadian experience in this area, starting from 1992. The analysis in the first part of the article is used to investigate why the depreciation of the Canadian dollar by almost 20 per cent between 1992 and 1994 did not produce as much of an increase in the inflation rate as predicted by conventional estimates of the exchange rate pass-through. The author first explains this phenomenon using the factors described in the theoretical part of the article: demand conditions, the costs of adjusting prices, and expectations about the depreciation's duration. She then examines the role of more specific factors, such as the abolition of customs duties on trade between Canada and the United States and the restructuring of the retail market. It is clear that the latter two factors helped neutralize the effect of the depreciation on prices.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission
• May 8, 1995

  Exchange rate fundamentals and the Canadian dollar

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 1995 Robert Lafrance, Simon van Norden

  Views in the economic literature on the main factors that influence exchange rates have evolved over time in response to economic developments and new trends in economic theory. This article provides a brief interpretative survey of the main theories of exchange rate determination. The factors that influence exchange rate developments are varied and complex. However, the authors show that the broad movements of the Canada-U.S. real exchange rate since the early 1970s can be captured by a simple equation that highlights the role of commodity prices and Canada-U.S. interest rate differentials. The equation is used to interpret the evolution of the real exchange rate over the last two decades. At times, the real exchange rate deviates significantly from what the equation would predict. One explanation is that the equation omits certain factors that can influence the exchange rate, particularly in the short run. These may include fiscal policy variables, international indebtedness, political uncertainty, and investor sentiments—factors that are difficult to quantify but that have been particularly relevant in recent years.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Exchange rates