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112 Results

Networking the Yield Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy

We study how different monetary policies affect the yield curve and interact. Our study highlights the importance of the spillover structure across the yield curve for policy-making.

Is the stock market pricing in a V‑shaped recovery?

Staff Analytical Note 2020-17 James Kyeong
Major stock indexes have bounced back from their March 23 trough to about 10 percent below their peaks. However, stocks that are more sensitive to the business cycle have not performed as well during this market rally. This suggests that stock markets are pricing in a slower, shallower economic recovery.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G1, G12, G14

The potential effect of a central bank digital currency on deposit funding in Canada

Staff Analytical Note 2020-15 Alejandro García, Bena Lands, Xuezhi Liu, Joshua Slive
A retail central bank digital currency denominated in Canadian dollars could, in theory, create competition for bank deposit funding.

Canadian Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Conditions

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-4 Thibaut Duprey
Severe disruptions in the financial markets, as observed during the 2008 global financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic, can impair the stability of the entire financial system and worsen macroeconomic downturns.

Managing GDP Tail Risk

Staff Working Paper 2020-3 Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt
Models for macroeconomic forecasts do not usually take into account the risk of a crisis—that is, a sudden large decline in gross domestic product (GDP). However, policy-makers worry about such GDP tail risk because of its large social and economic costs.

Furor over the Fed : Presidential Tweets and Central Bank Independence

Staff Analytical Note 2019-33 Antoine Camous, Dmitry Matveev
We illustrate how market data can be informative about the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. Federal funds futures are private contracts that reflect investor’s expectations about monetary policy decisions.

What Does Structural Analysis of the External Finance Premium Say About Financial Frictions?

Staff Working Paper 2019-38 Jelena Zivanovic
I use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) with sign restrictions to provide conditional evidence on the behavior of the US external finance premium (EFP). The results indicate that the excess bond premium, a proxy for the EFP, reacts countercyclically to supply and monetary policy shocks and procyclically to demand shocks.