Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates? Staff Working Paper 2006-27 Antonio Diez de los Rios The author proposes an arbitrage-free model of the joint behaviour of interest and exchange rates whose exchange rate forecasts outperform those produced by a random-walk model, a vector autoregression on the forward premiums and the rate of depreciation, and the standard forward premium regression. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15
A Structural Error-Correction Model of Best Prices and Depths in the Foreign Exchange Limit Order Market Staff Working Paper 2006-8 Ingrid Lo, Stephen Sapp Traders using the electronic limit order book in the foreign exchange market can watch the posted price and depth of the best quotes change over the day. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, D, D8, F, F3, F31
Structural Change in Covariance and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Canada Staff Working Paper 2006-2 Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian The authors address empirically the implications of structural breaks in the variance-covariance matrix of inflation and import prices for changes in pass-through. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E31, F, F3, F31, F4, F40
An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Emerging Asia Staff Working Paper 2005-38 Marc-André Gosselin, Nicolas Parent Over the past few years, the ability of the United States to finance its current account deficit has been facilitated by massive purchases of U.S. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15
The Effectiveness of Official Foreign Exchange Intervention in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Canadian Dollar Staff Working Paper 2005-21 Rasmus Fatum, Michael R. King The Bank of Canada is one of very few central banks that has made records of the intraday timing of its intervention operations available to researchers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G14, G15
Optimal Taylor Rules in an Estimated Model of a Small Open Economy Staff Working Paper 2004-36 Steve Ambler, Ali Dib, Nooman Rebei The authors compute welfare-maximizing Taylor rules in a dynamic general-equilibrium model of a small open economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): F, F2, F3, F31, F33
Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation Staff Working Paper 2004-21 Jeannine Bailliu, Eiji Fujii This paper investigates the question of whether a transition to a low-inflation environment, induced by a shift in monetary policy, results in a decline in the degree of pass-through of exchange rate movements to consumer prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E42, F, F3, F31
National Saving–Investment Dynamics and International Capital Mobility Staff Working Paper 2004-14 Florian Pelgrin, Sebastian Schich The authors analyze the dynamics of national saving–investment relationships to determine the degree of international capital mobility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, F, F3, F31
Simple Monetary Policy Rules in an Open-Economy, Limited-Participation Model Staff Working Paper 2003-38 Scott Hendry, Wai-Ming Ho, Kevin Moran The authors assess the stabilization properties of simple monetary policy rules within the context of a small open-economy model constructed around the limited-participation assumption and calibrated to salient features of the Canadian economy. By relying on limited participation as the main nominal friction that affects the artificial economy, the authors provide an important check of the robustness of the results obtained using alternative environments in the literature on monetary policy rules, most notably the now-standard "New Keynesian" paradigm that emphasizes rigidities in the price-setting mechanism. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, F, F3, F31
Real Exchange Rate Persistence in Dynamic General-Equilibrium Sticky-Price Models: An Analytical Characterization Staff Working Paper 2003-35 Hafedh Bouakez This paper assesses analytically the ability of dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price models to generate persistent real exchange rate fluctuations. It develops a tractable general-equilibrium model with Calvo-type price stickiness. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F41