A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria Staff Working Paper 1996-5 Joseph Atta-Mensah, Walter Engert, Scott Hendry, Jamie Armour A vector error-correction model (VECM) that forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is found to provide significant leading information about inflation. The model focusses on the effects of deviations of M1 from its long-run demand but also includes, among other things, the influence of the exchange rate, a simple measure of the output gap and past prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, E52
From Monetary Policy Instruments to Administered Interest Rates: The Transmission Mechanism in Canada Technical Report No. 69 Kevin Clinton, Donna Howard The authors investigate interest-rate aspects of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy instruments in Canada, focussing on the stability of the relationships between some key interest rates and the instruments of monetary policy. To determine what shifts may have occurred in recent years, they describe movements in rate differentials, apply cointegration tests and estimate error-correction […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52