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145 Results

On Commodity-Sensitive Currencies and Inflation Targeting

Staff Working Paper 2001-3 Kevin Clinton
Two aspects of the recent monetary history of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand stand out: the sensitivity of their dollars to prices of resource-based commodities, and inflation targeting. This paper explores various aspects of these phenomena.

Modelling Risk Premiums in Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets

Staff Working Paper 2000-9 René Garcia, Maral Kichian
The observed predictability of excess returns in equity and foreign exchange markets has largely been attributed to the presence of time-varying risk premiums in these markets. For example, excess equity returns were found to be explained by various financial and economic variables.

International Financial Crises and Flexible Exchange Rates: Some Policy Lessons from Canada

Technical Report No. 88 John Murray, Mark Zelmer, Zahir Antia
This paper examines the behaviour of the Canadian dollar from 1997 to 1999 to see if there is any evidence of excess volatility or significant overshooting. A small econometric model of the exchange rate, based on market fundamentals, is presented and used to make tentative judgments about the extent to which the currency might have been systematically over- or undervalued.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31

Quelques résultats empiriques relatifs à l'évolution du taux de change Canada/États-Unis

Staff Working Paper 2000-4 Ramdane Djoudad, David Tessier
This paper explores the extent to which factors other than commodity and energy prices may have contributed to the Canadian dollar's depreciation since the early 1970s. The variables considered include among others budgetary conditions and productivity.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31
December 15, 1999

The Exchange Rate, Productivity, and the Standard of Living

This article examines the recent proposition that the decline in Canada's standard of living relative to that of the United States is causally related to the decline in our exchange rate. The authors explore the main channels through which the exchange rate and the standard of living could be related—productivity and the terms of trade—focusing mainly on productivity. They conclude that the decline in world commodity prices and weak demand for domestic output were affecting both Canada's standard of living and the exchange rate and that the flexible exchange rate regime itself did not play an independent role.
November 14, 1999

Real Exchange Rate Indexes for the Canadian Dollar

In this article, the authors explain the methodology used to construct real exchange rate (RER) indexes. They also compare and assess various Canadian RER indexes from both an empirical and conceptual standpoint. The authors conclude that both theory and empirical evidence suggest that the best RER indexes are those based on unit labour costs. They note, however, that, for practical reasons, policy-makers should also consider RER indexes based on prices when formulating monetary policy.

Canada's Exchange Rate Regime and North American Economic Integration: The Role of Risk-Sharing Mechanisms

Staff Working Paper 1999-17 Zahir Antia, Ramdane Djoudad, Pierre St-Amant
Our contribution in this paper is threefold. First, we survey the empirical literature on consumption smoothing mechanisms of regional economic shocks. Second, building on the work of Asdrubali et al. (1996), we present evidence on the role played by various smoothing mechanisms for specific economic shocks affecting Canadian provinces. Third, we assess whether smoothing mechanisms […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F33, F36, G, G1, G15

Why Canada Needs a Flexible Exchange Rate

Staff Working Paper 1999-12 John Murray
This paper explores the arguments for and against a common currency for Canada and the United States and attempts to determine whether such an arrangement would offer any significant advantages for Canada compared with the present flexible exchange rate system. The paper first reviews the theoretical arguments advanced in the economics literature in support of fixed and flexible currency arrangements. A discussion of Canada's past experience with the two exchange rate systems follows, after which there is a survey of the empirical evidence published on Canada's current and prospective suitability for some form of fixed currency arrangement with the United States. The final section of the paper examines critically a number of concerns raised about the behaviour of the current flexible exchange rate system.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31

Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: An Application to Mexico

Staff Working Paper 1999-10 Patrick Osakwe, Lawrence L. Schembri
This paper examines the impact of a collapsing exchange rate regime on output in an open economy in which shocks to capital flows and exports predominate. A sticky-price rational expectations model is used to compare the variability of output under the collapsing regime to that under alternative fixed and flexible regimes. Output is found to […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F41
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