Content Types


JEL Codes






Published After

Published Before

149 Results

Alternative Targeting Regimes, Transmission Lags, and the Exchange Rate Channel

Staff Working Paper 2003-39 Jean-Paul Lam
Using a closed-economy model, Jensen (2002) and Walsh (2003) have, respectively, shown that a policy regime that optimally targets nominal income growth (NIT) or the change in the output gap (SLT) outperforms a regime that targets inflation, because NIT and SLT induce more inertia in the actions of the central bank, effectively replicating the outcome obtained under precommitment. The author obtains a very different result when the analysis is extended to open-economy models.

Real Exchange Rate Persistence in Dynamic General-Equilibrium Sticky-Price Models: An Analytical Characterization

Staff Working Paper 2003-35 Hafedh Bouakez
This paper assesses analytically the ability of dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price models to generate persistent real exchange rate fluctuations. It develops a tractable general-equilibrium model with Calvo-type price stickiness.

Nominal Rigidities and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in a Structural Model of a Small Open Economy

Staff Working Paper 2003-29 Steve Ambler, Ali Dib, Nooman Rebei
The authors analyze exchange rate pass-through in an estimated structural model of a small open economy that incorporates three types of nominal rigidity (wages and the prices of domestically produced and imported goods) and eight different structural shocks. The model is estimated using quarterly data from Canada and the United States.

Monetary Policy in Estimated Models of Small Open and Closed Economies

Staff Working Paper 2003-27 Ali Dib
The author develops and estimates a quantitative dynamic-optimizing model of a small open economy (SOE) with domestic and import price stickiness and capital-adjustment costs. A monetary policy rule allows the central bank to systematically manage the short-term nominal interest rate in response to deviations of inflation, output, and money growth from their steadystate levels.
August 22, 2003

Measuring Interest Rate Expectations in Canada

Financial market expectations regarding future changes in the target for the overnight rate of interest are an important source of information for the Bank of Canada. Financial markets are the mechanism through which the policy rate affects other financial variables, such as longer-term interest rates, the exchange rate, and other asset prices. An accurate measure of their expectations can therefore help policy-makers assess the potential impact of contemplated changes. Johnson focuses on the expectations hypothesis, which measures expectations of future levels of the target overnight rate as implied by current money market yields. Although expectations can be derived from the current yield on any short-term fixed-income asset, some assets have proven to be more accurate predictors than others. The implementation of a policy of fixed-announcements dates has coincided with the increased predictive power of these short-term assets. As a result of this improvement, a relatively simple model of the yield curve can now provide an accurate measure of financial market expectations.

Modélisation et prévision du taux de change réel effectif américain

Staff Working Paper 2003-3 René Lalonde, Patrick Sabourin
This study describes a simple model for predicting the real U.S. exchange rate. Starting with a large number of error-correction models, the authors choose the one giving the best out-of-sample forecasts over the period 1992Q3–2002Q1.
November 19, 2002

Purchasing-Power Parity: Definition, Measurement, and Interpretation

This article examines the concept of purchasing-power parity (PPP) and its implications for the equilibrium value of the Canadian exchange rate. PPP has two main applications, as a theory of exchange rate determination and as a means to compare living standards across countries. Concerning exchange rate determination, PPP is mainly useful as a reminder that monetary policy has no long-run impact on the real exchange rate, since the exchange rate can deviate persistently from its PPP value in response to real shocks. To compare living standards across countries, PPP exchange rates constructed by comparing the prices of national consumption baskets are used to translate per capita national incomes into a common currency. These rates are useful because they offset differences in national price levels to obtain comparable measures of purchasing power, but they are not an accurate measure of the equilibrium value of the exchange rate. The authors conclude that the current deviation of the Canadian exchange rate from the PPP rate does not imply that the exchange rate is undervalued, but that this deviation reflects the impact of persistent real factors, in particular, lower commodity prices.
Go To Page