November 8, 1994 The demand for currency and the underground economy Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 1994 Thérèse Laflèche The underground economy in Canada has attracted increased attention over the past few years, yet there is no precise way to measure its size. Recent estimates vary between 4 per cent and 15 per cent of gross domestic product. This article provides an overview of measurement issues and recent estimates. It then focusses on the "monetary" approach to estimating the size of the underground economy. This approach is based on the assumption that the demand for bank notes provides a clue as to the size of the underground economy. The article concludes that estimates that use this approach must be viewed with considerable caution. They are based on a number of assumptions that are difficult to verify and that significantly affect the results. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Monetary aggregates
December 12, 2024 Safeguarding end-user funds This supervisory guideline is intended to help payment service providers subject to the Retail Payment Activities Act meet their obligations related to safeguarding end-user funds. Content Type(s): Retail payments supervision materials, Supervisory guidelines Research Topic(s): Supervision
July 23, 2009 Monetary Policy Report – July 2009 The global economy has suffered an intense, synchronous recession and considerable excess supply has opened up. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
May 1, 2001 Renewal of the Inflation-Control Target (May 2001) Commentary relating to the 2001 target renewal. Content Type(s): Background materials Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy
Estimating Canada’s Effective Lower Bound Staff Analytical Note 2015-2 Jonathan Witmer, Jing Yang In 2009, the Bank of Canada set its effective lower bound (ELB) at 25 basis points (bps). Given the recent experience of Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland and the euro area with negative interest rates, we examine the economics of negative interest rates and suggest that cash storage costs are the source of a negative lower bound on interest rates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, E, E4, E41, E43, E5, E58
January 25, 2012 The Changing Landscape of Securities Trading Financial System Review - December 2007 Éric Chouinard Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
October 16, 2024 Operational risk and incident response This supervisory guideline is intended to help payment service providers subject to the Retail Payment Activities Act comply with their obligations related to the identification and mitigation of their operational risks as well as their response to incidents. Content Type(s): Retail payments supervision materials, Supervisory guidelines Research Topic(s): Supervision
January 22, 2020 Monetary Policy Report – January 2020 The Bank projects that growth in the Canadian economy will accelerate from 1.6 percent this year to 2 percent in 2021. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
April 7, 2025 Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2025 Business conditions have deteriorated due to the trade conflict with the United States, according to results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. Sales outlooks have softened, particularly for exporters. Firms reported having sufficient capacity, and many are delaying investment and hiring decisions amid uncertainty. Firms expect that widespread tariffs would raise costs and lead to higher selling prices. In this context, expectations for inflation are higher than they were last quarter. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
Characterizing Breadth in Canadian Economic Activity Staff Analytical Note 2020-1 Taylor Webley, Carla Valerio, Maureen MacIsaac Real growth in gross domestic product tends to be meaningfully higher when a large share of industries and demand components are growing—that is, when growth is broad across many fronts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32