Search

Good morning. Tiff and I are pleased to be here with you today to discuss the October Monetary Policy Report, which the Bank published last week. The global economy has slowed markedly as several downside risks to the projection outlined in the Bank’s July MPR have been realized. Volatility has increased and there has been […]

Building on the shift-share analysis of Barnett and Charbonneau (2015), this note decomposes Canada’s market shares in the United States, Europe and China for imports of non-energy goods into competitiveness, preference shifts and an interaction term. We find that, despite the depreciation of the dollar, Canada continued to lose market share over 2014–17 (around 0.4 percentage points lost per year on average over four years).

We consider ways central banks could adapt in the event of an increased risk of a dash for cash from asset managers. We explore ideas such as new facilities that ease asset managers’ ability to convert existing assets to cash or new assets with liquidity that central banks would guarantee.

An effective pension system enhances economic and financial efficiency. A majority of pension plans in Canada are defined-benefit (DB) plans, but DB plans are under stress from increasing longevity, low long-term interest rates, and the shrinking equity premium. DB plans are vulnerable to such shocks because they are complex financial vehicles, with interdependencies not fully […]

For many years, the Bank of Canada successfully responded to occasional eruptions in counterfeiting by improving the security features on bank notes. The surge in counterfeiting that occurred while the Bank prepared to launch the Canadian Journey series, however, reflected increasingly rapid advances in computer technology that were changing the counterfeiting environment. The article describes these and other challenges that affected the new series and describes how the Bank developed a comprehensive new approach to its currency program and incorporated the valuable lessons it learned from these challenges. Designed to combat counterfeiting and meet the needs of the public, the new strategy includes increased research and development on new bank note security features, an intensified focus on retailer and public education, and a focus on law enforcement.

Results in the first quarter of 2023 show that consumer expectations for inflation one to two years ahead fell but remain elevated, particularly for services. Consumers, especially indebted households and equity-deserving groups, are facing financial pressures and limits on their spending due to high inflation and increasing interest rates. Consumers expect to spend less on discretionary services, such as travelling and eating out. Canadians continue to anticipate a recession in the next 12 months. Many are uncertain about where the economy and job markets are going. Despite this, workers still see the labour market as strong and expect wage growth to increase.

Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney discusses the breakdown in trust in global banking and what is required to rebuild it.

We find that on any given day, nearly half of Government of Canada bond transactions by clients of dealers can be offset with other clients, including during the turmoil in March 2020. Our results show that under certain conditions clients could potentially trade directly with each other and are a step towards understanding the relevance of broader all-to-all trading in the Government of Canada bond market.

The program this evening focuses on the value of public service and the importance of economic and financial literacy for the well-being of Canadians. These two themes have special significance for me, as my career has involved time spent in the public service as well as teaching.

In this report, we describe methods for solving economic models when expectations are presumed to have at least some element of consistency with the predictions of the model itself. We present analytical results that establish the convergence properties of alternative solution procedures for linear models with unique solutions. Only one method is guaranteed to converge, […]