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43 Results

News-Driven International Credit Cycles

Staff working paper 2021-66 Galip Kemal Ozhan
This paper examines the implications of positive news about future asset values that turn out to be incorrect at a later date in an open economy model with banking. The model captures the patterns of bank credit and current account dynamics in Spain between 2000 and 2010. The model finds that the use of unconventional policies leads to a milder bust.

Exchange Rates, Retailers, and Importing: Theory and Firm-Level Evidence

Staff working paper 2019-34 Alex Chernoff, Patrick Alexander
We develop a model with firm heterogeneity in importing and cross-border shopping among consumers. Exchange-rate appreciations lower the cost of imported goods, but also lead to more cross-border shopping; hence, the net impact on aggregate retail prices and sales is ambiguous.

Measuring Systemic Risk Across Financial Market Infrastructures

Staff working paper 2016-10 Fuchun Li, Héctor Pérez Saiz
We measure systemic risk in the network of financial market infrastructures (FMIs) as the probability that two or more FMIs have a large credit risk exposure to the same FMI participant.

Credit Risk Transfer and Bank Insolvency Risk

Staff working paper 2017-59 Maarten van Oordt
The present paper shows that, everything else equal, some transactions to transfer portfolio credit risk to third-party investors increase the insolvency risk of banks. This is particularly likely if a bank sells the senior tranche and retains a sufficiently large first-loss position.

Producer Heterogeneity, Value-Added, and International Trade

Staff working paper 2016-54 Patrick Alexander
Standard new trade models depict producers as heterogeneous in total factor productivity. In this paper, I adapt the Eaton and Kortum (2002) model of international trade to incorporate tradable intermediate goods and producer heterogeneity in value-added productivity.

The Role of Long-Term Contracting in Business Lending

Staff working paper 2024-2 Phoebe Tian
This paper examines inefficiencies arising from a lack of long-term contracting in small business lending in China.

Quantum Monte Carlo for Economics: Stress Testing and Macroeconomic Deep Learning

Using the quantum Monte Carlo algorithm, we study whether quantum computing can improve the run time of economic applications and challenges in doing so. We apply the algorithm to two models: a stress testing bank model and a DSGE model solved with deep learning. We also present innovations in the algorithm and benchmark it to classical Monte Carlo.

Vertical Specialization and Gains from Trade

Staff working paper 2017-17 Patrick Alexander
Multi-stage production is widely recognized as an important feature of the modern global economy. This feature has been incorporated into many state-of-the-art quantitative trade models, and has been shown to deliver significant additional gains from international trade.

Let’s Get Physical: Impacts of Climate Change Physical Risks on Provincial Employment

Staff working paper 2024-32 Thibaut Duprey, Soojin Jo, Geneviève Vallée
We analyze 40 years’ worth of natural disasters using a local projection framework to assess their impact on provincial labour markets in Canada. We find that disasters decrease hours worked within a week and lower wage growth in the medium run. Our study highlights that disasters affect vulnerable workers through the income channel.
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