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October 29, 2025

Monetary Policy Report—October 2025—Risks

Risks related to Canada’s trade relationship with the United States remain elevated. The outlook could also be affected by risks that are not directly related to tariffs.
April 16, 2025

Monetary Policy Report—April 2025—Appendix

Canada’s potential output growth is anticipated to slow due to declining population growth and the ongoing trade conflict. The range for Canada’s neutral interest rate lies between 2.25% and 3.25%.

We Didn’t Start the Fire: Effects of a Natural Disaster on Consumers’ Financial Distress

We use detailed consumer credit data to investigate the impact of the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, the costliest wildfire disaster in Canadian history, on consumers’ financial stress. We focus on the arrears of insured mortgages because of their important implications for financial institutions and insurers’ business risk and relevant management practices.
April 9, 2009

Next Steps for Canadian Monetary Policy

In 2006, the Bank initiated a research program exploring two alternatives to the current inflation-targeting framework: (i) lowering the inflation target and (ii) shifting to a price-level target. This article discusses progress to date, places the Bank's findings in the context of a broader literature, and identifies avenues for future research.
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