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Right now, all national economies face difficulties - difficulties stemming from the further weakening of the world economy and from the terrorist acts in the United States. As businesses, governments, and individuals in Canada - and around the world - strive to come to terms with the implications of those acts, the main preoccupation is, naturally, with the near term.

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In this article, the author examines the maturity structure of the household sector's balance sheet and the degree of interest rate variability of household loans and financial assets. The bulk of households' interest-bearing assets and financial liabilities consists of medium- and long-term, fixed-rate instruments. The pattern of personal consumption is therefore influenced more by the wealth effects of interest rate changes than by their income effects, and the full impact of a permnent shift in interest rates on consumption will become apparent only after a lag.

This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

09:45 (ET)
On eight scheduled dates each year, the Bank of Canada announces the setting for the overnight rate target in a press release explaining the factors behind the decision. Four times a year, Governing Council presents the Monetary Policy Report: the Bank’s base-case projection for inflation and growth in the Canadian economy, and its assessment of risks.

Speaking a day after we decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 5%, Governor Tiff Macklem explores some key factors behind the decision. He also explains why the 2% inflation target supports a stable economy and greater prosperity for households and businesses.

Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry describes how the lessons learned from previous economic crises helped central bankers during the global COVID-19 pandemic. He also talks about how managing inflation expectations can help bring inflation back to target.

In its role as fiscal agent to the government, the Bank of Canada provides analysis and advice on decisions about the government's domestic debt portfolio. Debt-management decisions depend on assumptions about future interest rates, macroeconomic outcomes, and fiscal policy, yet when a debt-strategy decision is taken, none of these factors can be known with certainty. Moreover, the government has various financing options (i.e., treasury bills, nominal bonds, and inflation-linked bonds) to meet its objectives of minimizing debt-service charges while simultaneously ensuring a prudent risk profile and well-functioning government securities markets. Bank of Canada staff have therefore developed a mathematical model to assist in the decision-making process. This article describes the key aspects of the debt manager's challenge and the principal assumptions incorporated in the debt-strategy model, illustrated with specific results.

Deputy Governor Agathe Côté discusses the challenges of assessing risks to the financial system and describes models developed by the Bank of Canada to identify, measure, and analyze sources of risk.