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3903 Results

The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil

How can we assess the quality of a forecast? We propose a new benchmark to evaluate forecasts of temporally aggregated series and show that the real price of oil is more difficult to predict than we thought.

Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning

Staff working paper 2022-10 James Chapman, Ajit Desai
We demonstrate the usefulness of payment systems data and machine learning models for macroeconomic predictions and provide a set of econometric tools to overcome associated challenges.

The Boundaries of Bank Funding: The Case of Canadian Cash ETFs

Staff analytical paper 2026-32 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Vincent Meh, Jayden Plener
The rise and transformation of Canadian cash ETFs highlight that banking liquidity regulation affects more than bank resilience. By changing the relative attractiveness of deposits and securities, it can shape where asset managers allocate their cash across the financial system.

Debt-Relief Programs and Money Left on the Table: Evidence from Canada's Response to COVID-19

Staff working paper 2021-13 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Shaoteng Li, Nicolas Vincent
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Canadian financial institutions offered debt-relief programs to help borrowers cope with job losses and economic insecurity. We consider the low take-up rates for these programs and suggest that to be effective, such programs must be visible and easy to use.
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