What’s Up with Unit Non-Response in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey? The Effect of Staff Tenure Staff discussion paper 2017-11 Sarah Miller, David Amirault, Laurent Martin Since 1997, the Bank of Canada’s regional offices have been conducting the Business Outlook Survey (BOS), a quarterly survey of business conditions. Survey responses are gathered through face-to-face, confidential consultations with a sample of private sector firms representative of the various sectors, firm sizes and regions across Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, C8, C81, D, D2, D22 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
February 25, 2020 Money and Payments in the Digital Age Remarks Timothy Lane CFA Montréal FinTech RDV2020 Montréal, Quebec Deputy Governor Timothy Lane explains how the Bank of Canada is preparing for a future where Canadians may need a digital currency issued by their central bank. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Currency, Digital currency, Financial system, Financial markets, Fintech
April 3, 2023 Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2023 Results from the first-quarter 2023 Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys from January through March 2023 show a subdued sales outlook and plans for modest growth in capital expenditures. The labour market remains tight, but pressures have eased from high levels. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
Applying the Wage-Common to Canadian Provinces Staff analytical note 2018-16 Jonathan Lachaine As at the national level, available sources of hourly wage data for Canadian provinces sometimes send conflicting signals about wage growth. This note has two objectives. First, we develop a common measure of provincial wages (the provincial wage-common) to better capture the underlying wage pressures, reflecting the overall trend across all data sources. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, J, J3 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
April 29, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—April 2026—Canadian economy—Current conditions The Canadian economy is expected to have grown modestly in early 2026. After being close to 2% for more than a year, inflation increased in March as the war in the Middle East pushed up oil prices. Inflation is expected to rise further in April.
Assessing tariff pass-through to consumer prices in Canada: Lessons from 2018 Staff analytical note 2025-18 Alexander Lam US trade protectionism is making the economic outlook increasingly uncertain. To assess how consumer prices may respond to tariffs, we examine a tariff episode from 2018 using detailed microdata and the synthetic control method. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E31, F, F1, F10, F13, F14 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Did U.S. Consumers Respond to the 2014–2015 Oil Price Shock? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey Staff working paper 2018-13 Patrick Alexander, Louis Poirier The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy is a topic of considerable debate. In this paper, we examine the response of U.S. consumers to the 2014–2015 negative oil price shock using representative survey data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, Q, Q4, Q43 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
July 5, 2021 Business Outlook Survey—Summer 2021 Results from the summer Business Outlook Survey point to continued improvement in business sentiment. Firms tied to high-contact services still face challenges but are becoming more confident that sales will pick up as vaccination rates rise. This suggests an important broadening in the recovery ahead. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
January 16, 2023 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2022 Results of the fourth-quarter survey show that consumers have reduced their purchases of a broad range of goods and services in response to rising inflation and increases in interest rates. High food prices are a particular source of frustration for households. Most consumers anticipate a mild or moderate recession in the next 12 months. And although labour markets continue to be strong, some early signals suggest consumers think this strength will fade. Meanwhile, short-term inflation expectations remain elevated this quarter, but consumers have varied opinions about where inflation will be in five years. More people than before the pandemic expect deflation. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
May 15, 2023 Financial System Survey highlights—2023 This article presents the key results from the 2023 Bank of Canada Financial System Survey, conducted between February 21 and March 10. The survey included a special section on margining practices for non-centrally cleared derivatives. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Survey