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In a speech to the Canadian Society of New York, Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said today that Canada's monetary policy framework, based on an explicit inflation-control target and a flexible exchange rate, "has contributed importantly to putting the Canadian economy back on the right path to longer-term prosperity."

While conditions in the Canadian economy have improved since we met with you in February and April, many of the basic challenges remain. Before Paul and I take your questions, I would like to give you some of the highlights from our latest Monetary Policy Report, released last week.

Lectures delivered by Gordon G. Thiessen, Governor of the Bank of Canada 1994 to 2001

How do deglobalization and rising trade costs affect monetary policy? A two-country, multi-sector model of Canada and the United States shows that bilateral trade-cost shocks generate a manageable inflation–output trade-off under the existing framework — but larger or more persistent shocks would make look-through policies costlier and riskier.

We summarize the review and renewal process at four central banks (Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of England, Sveriges Riksbank and the US Federal Reserve Bank) and compare them with the process at the Bank of Canada, which has been well-established since 2001.

We show how Treasury demand shocks transmit to foreign exchange and bond markets globally. Higher Treasury demand weakens the U.S. dollar and raises foreign bond prices, with effects persisting for two weeks. The transmission varies predictably across countries based on their monetary policy alignment with the United States.

Conventional models imply that central banks aiming to raise inflation should lower nominal rates and thus stimulate aggregate demand. However, several economists have recently challenged this conventional wisdom in favour of an alternative “neo-Fisherian’’ view under which higher nominal rates might in fact lead to higher inflation.

To begin, as a little background I would like to quickly review the framework within which we conduct Canada's monetary policy. The Bank of Canada Act calls on us to mitigate "fluctuations in the general level of production, trade, prices and employment, so far as may be possible within the scope of monetary action, and generally to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada."

We present a policy framework for electronic money and payments. The framework poses a set of positive questions related to the areas of responsibility of central banks: payments systems, monetary policy and financial stability. The questions are posed to four broad forms of e-money: privately or publicly issued, and with centralized or decentralized verification of transactions. This framework is intended to help evaluate the trade-offs that central banks face in the decision to issue new forms of e-money.

Decomposing total inflation in Canada as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) into its key macroeconomic factors, as presented in the most recent Monetary Policy Report, is an interesting exercise that shows how the exchange rate pass-through, commodity prices and the output gap have influenced the evolution of the total inflation rate over time. This aggregate approach, however, may mask important sectoral changes.