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Global economic growth has been somewhat stronger than projected, with momentum in emerging-market economies increasing noticeably.

The financial turbulence that began in the U.S. subprime-mortgage market in August 2007 reached maximum intensity towards the end of 2008, and enveloped the entire global economy. Strains that had previously been concentrated in a few major financial centers turned into a full-blown crisis, affecting both industrial and emerging-market economies through trade, financial, and confidence channels.

We document an increase in deviations from short-term covered interest rate parity (CIP) in the first half of 2015. Since the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) decision to abandon its minimum exchange rate policy, both the magnitude and volatility of deviations from CIP have increased across several currency pairs. The effect is particularly pronounced for pairs involving the Swiss franc.

Today the Bank confirmed that monetary policy will continue to be implemented via a floor system where the interest rate on the deposit facility is equal to the target for the overnight rate. To reinforce the Bank’s overnight target rate in a floor system with excess settlement balances, the Bank is also announcing changes to its Overnight Reverse Repo (ORR) operations.

In this note, we find that market participants react to an unexpected change in the tone of Canadian monetary policy statements. When the market perceives that the Bank of Canada plans to tighten (or alternatively, loosen) the monetary policy earlier than previously expected, the Canadian dollar appreciates (or depreciates) and long-term Government of Canada bond yields increase (or decrease). The tone of a statement is particularly relevant to the market when the policy rate has been unchanged for some time.

Learn about the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Bank’s actions to support the Canadian economy and financial system.

Global economic growth remains near 3%, and headline inflation is close to central bank targets in many countries. However, uncertainty has increased amid political and trade tensions. The outlook does not incorporate new tariffs threatened by the United States.

From 2011 to 2019, inflation in Canada and advanced economies usually registered below inflation targets, spurring the debate on whether the inflation process has changed. This paper highlights emerging questions that will influence the conduct of monetary policy in Canada in the near term.

The Financial System Review is one vehicle that the Bank of Canada uses to contribute to the strength of the Canadian financial system. The Developments and Trends section of the Review aims to provide analysis and discussion of current developments and trends in the Canadian financial sector.