May 13, 2014 Beyond the Unemployment Rate: Assessing Canadian and U.S. Labour Markets Since the Great Recession Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Konrad Zmitrowicz, Mikael Khan This article provides a broad perspective on the performance of the labour market in Canada and the United States since the Great Recession. It also presents a simple way to summarize much of this information in a single composite labour market indicator (LMI) for both countries. The LMI suggests that the unemployment rate in Canada has evolved largely in line with overall labour market conditions since the recession, but may have modestly overstated the extent of recent improvement. The U.S. unemployment rate, in contrast, appears to have substantially overstated the post-recession improvement in labour market conditions. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J23
Financial Crisis Interventions Staff working paper 2016-29 Josef Schroth This paper develops a model of an economy where bank credit supports both productive investment and individual consumption smoothing in the face of idiosyncratic income risk. Bank credit is constrained by bank equity capital. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
MSTest: An R-Package for Testing Markov Switching Models Staff working paper 2026-7 Gabriel Rodriguez Rondon, Jean-Marie Dufour We present the R package MSTest, which implements hypothesis testing procedures to determine the number of regimes in Markov switching models. The package provides several testing frameworks, including Monte Carlo likelihood ratio tests, moment-based tests, parameter stability tests, and classical likelihood ratio procedures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C15, C18, C6, C63, C8, C87 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
June 11, 2015 Financial System Review - June 2015 The Reports section of the Financial System Review examines selected issues of relevance to the Canadian and global financial systems. The June 2015 issue features two reports summarizing recent work by Bank of Canada staff on specific financial sector policies. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
February 29, 2020 Research Update - February 2020 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
CBDC and Monetary Sovereignty Staff analytical note 2020-5 Antonio Diez de los Rios, Yu Zhu In an increasingly digitalized world, issuers of private digital currency can weaken central banks’ ability to stabilize the economy. By continuing to make central bank money attractive as a payment instrument in a digital world, a central bank digital currency (CDBC) could help to maintain a country’s monetary sovereignty. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, F, F5, F55, G, G1, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
May 21, 2020 Quarterly Financial Report - First Quarter 2020 Quarterly Financial Report - First Quarter 2020 - For the period ended March 31, 2020 Content Type(s): Publications, Quarterly Financial Report
Canadian Bank Notes and Dominion Notes: Lessons for Digital Currencies Staff working paper 2017-5 Ben Fung, Scott Hendry, Warren E. Weber This paper studies the period in Canada when both private bank notes and government-issued notes (Dominion notes) were simultaneously in circulation. Because both of these notes shared many of the characteristics of today's digital currencies, the experience with these notes can be used to draw lessons about how digital currencies might perform. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech
Non-bank financial intermediation: Canada’s submission to the 2023 global monitoring report Staff analytical note 2024-15 Malcolm Fisher, Alan Walsh We share insights from Canadian data from 2002 to 2022 that the Bank of Canada collected. The Bank submits these data each year to the Financial Stability Board for inclusion in its Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G22, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
April 16, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—April 2025—Appendix Canada’s potential output growth is anticipated to slow due to declining population growth and the ongoing trade conflict. The range for Canada’s neutral interest rate lies between 2.25% and 3.25%.