March 3, 2022 Economic progress report: Controlling inflation Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem CFA Society Toronto Toronto, Ontario Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and what’s driving inflation in Canada. He also discusses how the Bank will manage the next step in the Bank’s balance sheet operations – quantitative tightening. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
Making It Real: Bringing Research Models into Central Bank Projections Staff discussion paper 2023-29 Marc-André Gosselin, Sharon Kozicki Macroeconomic projections and risk analyses play an important role in guiding monetary policy decisions. Models are integral to this process. This paper discusses how the Bank of Canada brings research models and lessons learned from those models into the central bank projection environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C51, E, E3, E37, E4, E47, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
February 6, 2019 Taking Precautions: The Canadian Approach to Foreign Reserves Management Remarks Timothy Lane Peterson Institute for International Economics Washington, D.C. Deputy Governor Timothy Lane discusses how Canada manages its foreign exchange reserves. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial markets, Financial stability, Funds management
January 14, 2008 Backgrounder on Questions in the Business Outlook Survey Concerning Past Sales and Credit Conditions Starting with the winter 2007–08 survey, the results of two additional questions became included in the Business Outlook Survey (BOS) publication: the balance of opinion on past sales and the balance of opinion on credit conditions. This backgrounder briefly describes the two questions and presents the correlations between the responses and relevant economic data. Content Type(s): Background materials
October 25, 2005 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2005 Cover page Ready References The book is part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Explaining Unusual Cash Patterns in 2018 Staff analytical note 2019-22 Walter Engert, Ben Fung, Jozsef Molnar, Gradon Nicholls There was an unusually large decline of bank notes in circulation in October 2018. Some have argued that this was due to the legalization of cannabis in Canada in mid-October. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes
Forecasting Risks to the Canadian Economic Outlook at a Daily Frequency Staff discussion paper 2023-19 Chinara Azizova, Bruno Feunou, James Kyeong This paper quantifies tail risks in the outlooks for Canadian inflation and real GDP growth by estimating their conditional distributions at a daily frequency. We show that the tail risk probabilities derived from the conditional distributions accurately reflect realized outcomes during the sample period from 2002 to 2022. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C58, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G17 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Exchange Rates, Retailers, and Importing: Theory and Firm-Level Evidence Staff working paper 2019-34 Alex Chernoff, Patrick Alexander We develop a model with firm heterogeneity in importing and cross-border shopping among consumers. Exchange-rate appreciations lower the cost of imported goods, but also lead to more cross-border shopping; hence, the net impact on aggregate retail prices and sales is ambiguous. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, L, L8, L81 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
April 16, 2006 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2006 Cover page Depression Scrip The examples of Depression scrip illustrated here are part of the National Currency Collection of the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Markov‐Switching Three‐Pass Regression Filter Staff working paper 2017-13 Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon, Massimiliano Marcellino We introduce a new approach for the estimation of high-dimensional factor models with regime-switching factor loadings by extending the linear three-pass regression filter to settings where parameters can vary according to Markov processes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C23, C5, C53 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting