April 12, 2021 Business Outlook Survey—Spring 2021 Results from the spring Business Outlook Survey suggest that business sentiment continues to improve. Firms reported less uncertainty related to the COVID-19 pandemic and strengthening demand from weak levels. Still, the recovery remains uneven, with firms tied to high-contact services facing ongoing challenges. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
December 12, 2019 Big Issues Ahead: The Bank’s 2020 Vision Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Empire Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how long-term global economic forces will drive the Bank of Canada’s work agenda in 2020 and beyond. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation targeting framework
The Effects of Inflation Targeting for Financial Development Staff analytical note 2019-21 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Amy (Qijia) Li The adoption of inflation targeting (IT) by central banks leads to an increase of 10 to 20 percent in measures of financial development, with a lag. We also find evidence that the financial sector benefits of IT adoption were higher for early-adopting central banks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
August 18, 2011 Developing a Medium-Term Debt-Management Strategy for the Government of Canada Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2011 Marc Larson, Étienne Lessard As the Government of Canada’s fiscal agent, the Bank of Canada provides strategic policy advice on the management of the government’s debt, in addition to being responsible for conducting debt-management operations. In this article, the authors review the evolution of the debt strategy over the past 20 years and outline the complex process of developing a sound strategy that balances various cost and risk considerations. This includes an examination of the tools and practices used to develop the new medium-term debt-management strategy, such as the modelling approach involved, market consultations and various debt-management metrics. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
January 11, 2021 Business Outlook Survey—Winter 2020–21 In the winter Business Outlook Survey, firms pointed to a continued recovery supported by strengthening domestic and foreign demand, particularly in goods-producing sectors. Still, firms expect the recovery to be uneven; in particular, businesses that have been hit hard by the pandemic anticipate challenging times ahead. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
May 6, 2020 Annual Report 2019 The Annual Report outlines the Bank’s activities and achievements in 2019. It includes the financial statements and a message from Governor Stephen S. Poloz. Content Type(s): Publications, Annual Report
Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters Staff working paper 2016-5 Soojin Jo, Rodrigo Sekkel We analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of different economic indicators. Comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a real-time subjective measure of uncertainty in a simple framework. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E1, E17, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
February 6, 2019 Taking Precautions: The Canadian Approach to Foreign Reserves Management Remarks Timothy Lane Peterson Institute for International Economics Washington, D.C. Deputy Governor Timothy Lane discusses how Canada manages its foreign exchange reserves. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial markets, Financial stability, Funds management
December 23, 2024 Summary of Governing Council deliberations: Fixed announcement date of December 11, 2024 This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on December 11, 2024. Content Type(s): Publications, Summary of deliberations
Exchange Rates, Retailers, and Importing: Theory and Firm-Level Evidence Staff working paper 2019-34 Alex Chernoff, Patrick Alexander We develop a model with firm heterogeneity in importing and cross-border shopping among consumers. Exchange-rate appreciations lower the cost of imported goods, but also lead to more cross-border shopping; hence, the net impact on aggregate retail prices and sales is ambiguous. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, L, L8, L81 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness