Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2025 update Staff analytical note 2025-16 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, William Beaudoin, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Ingomar Krohn, Jan David Schneider We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, unchanged from the range assessed in 2024. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
October 22, 2003 Monetary Policy Report – October 2003 In the April Monetary Policy Report, the Bank noted that inflation was well above its 2 per cent target and that short-term inflation expectations had edged up. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
November 17, 2016 Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Emerging-Market Economies Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2016 Jeannine Bailliu, Christopher Hajzler Growth has slowed in many emerging-market economies (EMEs) since the 2007–09 global financial crisis, reflecting both cyclical and structural factors. In this context, it will be in-creasingly important for EMEs to raise potential growth by maintaining steady progress on structural reforms. How do structural reforms generally support growth? What are the re-form priorities for EMEs over recent history and today? Finally, what will be the impact of planned structural reforms on potential output growth among the world’s larger EMEs? These are some of the questions considered by the authors. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E6, E61, E65, O, O1, O11, O4, O41
April 24, 2002 Monetary Policy Report – April 2002 At the time of last November’s Monetary Policy Report, two issues dominated the analysis: the global economic slowdown and the fallout from the September terrorist attacks. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
July 14, 2021 Monetary Policy Report – July 2021 As the economy reopens after the third wave of COVID-19, growth should rebound strongly. The Bank is forecasting growth of about 6 percent this year, slowing to about 4 ½ percent in 2022 and 3 ¼ percent in 2023. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
October 26, 2009 Monetary Policy Report – October 2009 Recent indicators point to the start of a global recovery from a deep, synchronous recession. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
June 12, 2017 Canadian Economic Update: Strength in Diversity Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins The Associates of the Asper School of Business Winnipeg, Manitoba Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about encouraging signs that growth is broadening across Canada’s regions and sectors. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
October 15, 2018 Business Outlook Survey—Autumn 2018 Responses to the autumn Business Outlook Survey indicate that near-term business prospects continue to be robust. Strong demand and elevated capacity pressures support firms’ investment and employment intentions. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
The impact of trading flows on Government of Canada bond prices Staff analytical note 2025-20 Andreas Uthemann, Rishi Vala, Jun Yang Trading flows affect Government of Canada bond prices. Our estimates suggest a sale of 1% of the available supply of bonds typically lowers bond prices by 0.2%. From 2000 to 2025, demand from institutional investors, such as Canadian pension funds and foreign investors, explains 69% of quarterly price variation, with the remainder explained by changes in the supply of bonds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C3, C36, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, E, E6, E62, G, G1, G11, G12, G2, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
May 28, 2026 Financial Stability Report—2026—In focus—A financial market correction could worsen the effects of an oil shock The war in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices, putting pressure on inflation. In a situation where geopolitical tensions trigger a severe tightening in financial conditions, the resilience of the financial system could be tested.