Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update Staff analytical note 2024-9 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Dmitry Matveev, Laure Simon We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2024 update Staff analytical note 2024-8 Erik Ens, Alexander Lam, Kurt See, Gabriela Galassi We assess the health of the Canadian labour market. We find that it has seen gradual but material easing since 2023, amid some signs of structural changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, J, J2, J3, J6 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
April 29, 2024 CARR Meeting (April 29, 2024) Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group
The Neutral Interest Rate: Past, Present and Future Staff discussion paper 2024-3 Matteo Cacciatore, Bruno Feunou, Galip Kemal Ozhan The decline in safe real interest rates over the past three decades has reignited discussions on the neutral real interest rate, known as R*. We address the determinants and estimation methods of R*, as well as the factors influencing its decline and its future trajectory. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E6, E62 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
April 25, 2024 CFIF announces the establishment of the Collateral Infrastructure and Market Practices Advisory Group The Canadian Fixed-Income Forum today announced the establishment of the Collateral Infrastructure and Market Practices Advisory Group. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Collateral Infrastructure and Market Practices Advisory Group
April 25, 2024 Bank of Canada plans to re-introduce its securities lending program The Bank of Canada is planning to restart later this year its securities lending program (SLP) which is designed to support the liquidity of Government of Canada (GoC) securities markets. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Securities Lending Program, Securities Repo Operations
April 24, 2024 Summary of Governing Council deliberations: Fixed announcement date of April 10, 2024 This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on April 10, 2024. Content Type(s): Publications, Summary of deliberations
April 22, 2024 Market Participants Survey—First Quarter of 2024 The Market Participants Survey results are based on questionnaire responses from about 30 financial market participants. Content Type(s): Publications, Market Participants Survey
April 17, 2024 Introduction of one-month treasury bill In line with the announcement in the federal 2024 Budget, the Government of Canada will be introducing a temporary one-month treasury bill. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
U.S. Macroeconomic News and Low-Frequency Changes in Small Open Economies’ Bond Yields Staff working paper 2024-12 Bingxin Ann Xing, Bruno Feunou, Morvan Nongni-Donfack, Rodrigo Sekkel Using two complementary approaches, we investigate the importance of U.S. macroeconomic news in driving low-frequency fluctuations in the term structure of interest rates in Canada, Sweden and the United Kingdom. We find that U.S. macroeconomic news is particularly important to explain changes in the expectation components of the nominal, real and break-even inflation rates of small open economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, G, G1, G14 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness