Forecasting Risks to the Canadian Economic Outlook at a Daily Frequency Staff Discussion Paper 2023-19 Chinara Azizova, Bruno Feunou, James Kyeong This paper quantifies tail risks in the outlooks for Canadian inflation and real GDP growth by estimating their conditional distributions at a daily frequency. We show that the tail risk probabilities derived from the conditional distributions accurately reflect realized outcomes during the sample period from 2002 to 2022. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C58, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G17
Digitalization: Implications for Monetary Policy Staff Discussion Paper 2023-18 Vivian Chu, Tatjana Dahlhaus, Christopher Hajzler, Pierre-Yves Yanni We explore the implications of digitalization for monetary policy, both in terms of how monetary policy affects the economy and in terms of data analysis and communication with the public. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digitalization, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C4, C8, E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52
Digitalization: Productivity Staff Discussion Paper 2023-17 Jeffrey Mollins, Temel Taskin We examine the relationship between digitalization and productivity, the factors that influence this relationship, and how digitalization’s effect on productivity could change firm behaviour. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digitalization, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, L, L1, L11, O, O4, O47, O5, O51
Digitalization: Labour Markets Staff Discussion Paper 2023-16 Alex Chernoff, Gabriela Galassi In this paper, the authors assess the relationship between digitalization and labour demand and supply, and how this relationship affects wages and income inequality. We also explore implications of recent digitalization trends for the future of work. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digitalization, Labour markets JEL Code(s): I, I2, I23, J, J2, J23, J24, O, O3, O33
Unmet Payment Needs and a Central Bank Digital Currency Staff Discussion Paper 2023-15 Christopher Henry, Walter Engert, Alexandra Sutton-Lalani, Sebastian Hernandez, Darcey McVanel, Kim Huynh We discuss the payment habits of Canadians both in the current payment environment and in a hypothetical cashless environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54
Cryptoasset Ownership and Use in Canada: An Update for 2022 Staff Discussion Paper 2023-14 Daniela Balutel, Christopher Henry, Doina Rusu We find that Bitcoin ownership declined from 13% in 2021 to 10% in 2022. This drop occurred against a background of steep price declines and an increasingly tight regulatory atmosphere. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, E, E4, O, O5, O51
What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada? Staff Discussion Paper 2023-13 Marc-André Gosselin, Temel Taskin We construct new indicators of demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. Our results indicate that the new indicators could help central banks identify inflationary pressures in real time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, E, E3, E5
Estimating the Slope of the Demand Function at Auctions for Government of Canada Bonds Staff Discussion Paper 2023-12 Bo Young Chang We use bid data from Government of Canada bond auctions between 1999 and 2021 to gauge the yield sensitivity of these bonds to the issuance amount. Our new metric estimates the demand function of the bidders at each auction and offers insights into the relationship between supply and yield of government bonds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Debt management, Interest rates JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, G, G1, G12
Why Consumers Disagree About Future Inflation Staff Discussion Paper 2023-11 Naveen Rai, Patrick Sabourin Since 2022, consumer inflation expectations have shifted, with a significant increase in those expecting high inflation in the coming year and a surge in those expecting deflation further in the future. Using data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, this paper seeks to assess the factors that influence people to expect high inflation, moderate inflation or deflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31
Reviewing Canada’s Monetary Policy Implementation System: Does the Evolving Environment Support Maintaining a Floor System? Staff Discussion Paper 2023-10 Toni Gravelle, Ron Morrow, Jonathan Witmer At the onset of the pandemic, the Bank of Canada transitioned its framework for monetary policy implementation from a corridor system to a floor system, which it has since decided to maintain. We provide a comprehensive analysis of both frameworks and assess their relative merits based on five key criteria that define a sound framework. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy implementation, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, E, E4, E42, E5, E58