Expectations: Definitions, graphs and data

Source: Conference Board of Canada, Index of Business Confidence.Last observation:

Source: Business Outlook Survey, Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index? (% of firms).Last observation:

* Year-over-year percentage change
Source: Consensus Economics Inc. Prior to April 2014, forecasts were semi-annual (semi-annual values are shown for the two appropriate quarters in the graph above). Since then, they are available quarterly.
** The differential is calculated using the appropriate compound interest formula.Last observation:


Percentage of firms expecting price increases over the next six months

From the Conference Board's Index of Business Confidence, the firm's expectation of price increases over the next six months.

CPI Inflation: Consensus Forecasts

Arithmetic average of all the individual predictions collected by Consensus Economics for CPI inflation in Canada.

Percentage of firms expecting CPI inflation over the next two years

From the Business Outlook Survey conducted by the Bank of Canada’s regional offices, the firms’ expectation for the annual rate of inflation, based on the consumer price index, over the next two years. Learn more

Expectations implicit in real/nominal bond spread

Yield spread between conventional (selected long-term government of Canada benchmark bond yields) and benchmark real return bonds.