The Bank of Canada monitors a wide range of indicators in assessing the extent of pressures on capacity and inflation. The Bank's conventional estimate of the output gap provides an overall assessment of the degree of slack in the economy, but this estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty is addressed by considering a wide range of indicators in various markets. Many of these indicators are derived from data published by Statistics Canada, but some reflect information gathered by the Bank's regional representatives as well as by various outside sources. For further discussion of uncertainty as well as the information and analysis used to inform monetary policy decisions at the Bank of Canada, see Jenkins and Longworth1 (2002) and Macklem2 (2002).
1. Jenkins, Paul and David Longworth, "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty."Bank of Canada Review, Summer 2002: 3-10.
2. Macklem, Tiff, "Information and Analysis for Monetary Policy: Coming to a Decision." Bank of Canada Review, Summer 2002: 11-18.
(Sources)
Note: The following tables are updated one day after the Bank's most recent announcement date for the target overnight rate, based on information available up to that date. When the fixed announcement date is accompanied by a quarterly Monetary Policy Report, the tables will be updated on the day of release.
Updated: July 15, 2020
Next update: September 9, 2020
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Inflation (year-over-year percentage change) Selected definitions, graphs and historical data |
2018Q4 | 2019Q1 | 2019Q2 | 2019Q3 | 2019Q4 | 2020Q1 | 2020Q2 | 2020Q3 | Latest data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI Inflation | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 Jul | |
| CPI-trim | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 Jul | |
| CPI-median | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 Jul | |
| CPI-common | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 Jul | |
| Chain price index for GDP | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | -0.8 | -0.8 Q2 | |
| Chain price index for consumption | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 Q2 |
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Product market Selected definitions, graphs and historical data |
2018Q4 | 2019Q1 | 2019Q2 | 2019Q3 | 2019Q4 | 2020Q1 | 2020Q2 | 2020Q3 | Latest data | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Output gap (Integrated framework) (%)1 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -3.2 | -3.2 Q1 | |||
| Output gap (Extended multivariate filter) (%)1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 Q1 | |||
| Business Outlook Survey | Difficulty meeting an unanticipated increase in demand/sales (% firms) | 56.0 | 31.0 | 42.0 | 51.0 | 53.0 | 46.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 Q2 | |
| Unfilled orders/shipments - Manufacturing excluding aerospace products and parts | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.80 | 1.01 | 0.85 Jun | ||
| Aggregate stock-to-sales ratio | 0.736 | 0.736 | 0.732 | 0.735 | 0.739 | 0.758 | 0.861 | 0.861 Q2 | ||
| Foreign demand for Canadian non-commodity exports (2007=100)1 | GRACE | 120.6 | 120.4 | 120.1 | 120.2 | 119.3 | 115.8 | 115.8 Q1 | ||
| FAM-IO | 131.3 | 132.1 | 132.9 | 133.5 | 133.8 | 131.1 | 131.1 Q1 | |||
- 1. As of the most recent Monetary Policy Report. Learn more on the extended multivariate filter and integrated framework.[←]
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Labour market Selected definitions, graphs and historical data |
2018Q4 | 2019Q1 | 2019Q2 | 2019Q3 | 2019Q4 | 2020Q1 | 2020Q2 | 2020Q3 | Latest data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate (%) | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 13.0 | 10.2 Aug | |
| Labour market indicator (LMI) | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 13.3 | 9.6 Aug | |
| Participation rate (%) | 65.4 | 65.7 | 65.8 | 65.7 | 65.6 | 64.8 | 61.7 | 64.6 Aug | |
| Growth in employment (annualized rate, %) | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | -5.8 | -38.4 | 1.4 Aug 2 | |
| Labour shortage (% firms, Business Outlook Survey) | 37.0 | 19.0 | 26.0 | 34.0 | 31.0 | 28.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 Q2 | |
| Intensity of labour shortages (balance of opinion, Business Outlook Survey) | 43.0 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 22.0 | 25.0 | 18.0 | -41.0 | -41.0 Q2 |
- 2. Percentage change at monthly rate.[←]
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Wages and costs (year-over-year percentage change) Selected definitions, graphs and historical data |
2018Q4 | 2019Q1 | 2019Q2 | 2019Q3 | 2019Q4 | 2020Q1 | 2020Q2 | 2020Q3 | Latest data | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wage-common | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 Q2 | ||
| Wage-common inputs | Labour Force Survey – Average Hourly Earnings | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 9.6 | 6.5 Aug | |
| Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours – Average Hourly Earnings | 2.9 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 5.3 Jun | ||
| Productivity Accounts – Compensation per Hour | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 Q2 | ||
| National Accounts – Hourly Wages and Salaries | 2.1 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 7.0 | 7.0 Q2 | ||
| Unit labour costs - Total economy (labour income/GDP at market prices) | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 6.3 Q2 | ||
| Bank of Canada commodity price index | Total | -7.70 | -4.20 | -10.80 | -8.00 | 4.50 | -13.80 | -28.70 | -0.80 Aug | |
| Energy | -8.50 | -0.50 | -9.00 | -11.30 | 6.10 | -26.30 | -50.90 | -18.40 Aug | ||
| Non-energy | -6.60 | -7.90 | -12.60 | -4.50 | 2.50 | -0.80 | -3.70 | 12.60 Aug | ||
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Real estate market Selected definitions, graphs and historical data |
2018Q4 | 2019Q1 | 2019Q2 | 2019Q3 | 2019Q4 | 2020Q1 | 2020Q2 | 2020Q3 | Latest data | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New housing price index (year-over-year percentage change) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.7 Jul | ||
| Vacancy rate | Apartments (%) Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 Q4 | ||||||
| Offices (%) Source: Cushman & Wakefield | 10.1 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 9.8 Q2 | ||
| Industrial market (%) Source: Cushman & Wakefield | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 Q2 | ||
| Housing affordability index | 0.356 | 0.350 | 0.336 | 0.339 | 0.346 | 0.348 | 0.301 | 0.301 Q2 | ||
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Expectations Selected definitions, graphs and historical data |
2018Q4 | 2019Q1 | 2019Q2 | 2019Q3 | 2019Q4 | 2020Q1 | 2020Q2 | 2020Q3 | Latest data | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percentage of firms expecting price increases over the next six months of: Source: The Conference Board of Canada | 1% or less | 27 | 51 | 37 | 38 | 33 | 53 | 46 | 46 Q2 | |
| 2% or less | 72 | 89 | 90 | 84 | 82 | 68 | 65 | 65 Q2 | ||
| 3% or less | 92 | 95 | 95 | 98 | 94 | 76 | 73 | 73 Q2 | ||
| more than 3% | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 23 | 23 Q2 | ||
| CPI inflation: Consensus Forecasts (year-over-year percentage change) Source: Consensus Economics | 2019 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 Dec | |||
| 2020 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 Jul | |||
| 2021 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 Jul | |||||||
| 2-3 years | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 Q3 | |
| 6-10 years | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 Q3 | |
| Percentage of firms expecting CPI inflation over the next two years to be: Source: Business Outlook Survey | Less than 1% | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 25 Q2 | |
| 1-2% | 35 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 59 | 53 | 37 | 37 Q2 | ||
| 2-3% | 54 | 27 | 28 | 32 | 30 | 38 | 24 | 24 Q2 | ||
| more than 3% | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 Q2 | ||
| Expectations implicit in real/nominal bond spread | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 Aug | ||