Staff research, Publications

• How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables

  Staff Working Paper 2007-1 John Galbraith, Greg Tkacz

  For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not reported beyond this horizon; by contrast, little generally accepted information about such maximum horizons is available for economic variables.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53
• January 30, 2007

  Annual Report 2006

  

  The year 2006 marked a turning point for the Bank of Canada. We successfully completed our medium-term plan, The Way Forward, and began writing a fresh chapter in the Bank’s history based on a new three-year plan. In this annual report, we do more than give an accounting of past achievements. We also provide forward-looking information on the plans and priorities in our new medium-term plan. And as we advance, we are always mindful of the Bank’s original mandate, set out more than 70 years ago, to “promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada.”

  Content Type(s): Publications, Annual Report
• January 23, 2007

  Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2006-2007

  

  Cover page

  French Provincial Issues in Canada

  The coins pictured on the cover are part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada.
  Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
• January 16, 2007

  Monetary Policy Report Update – January 2007

  The global economy has continued to expand robustly. However, U.S. economic growth slowed in 2006, with the weakness concentrated in the automotive and housing sectors.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
• January 8, 2007

  Business Outlook Survey - Winter 2006-07

  On balance, businesses expect their sales over the next 12 months to increase at a rate slightly above that posted during the preceding 12 months. Hiring and investment intentions have not changed significantly since the last survey.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
• December 31, 2006

  Summary of Government of Canada - Outstanding as at 31 December 2006

  Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Securities and loans
• December 23, 2006

  Global Savings, Investment, and World Real Interest Rates

  Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2006-2007 Brigitte Desroches, Michael Francis

  Over the past 25 years, world long-term interest rates have declined to levels not seen since the 1960s. This decline has been accompanied by falling world investment and savings rates. The authors explore global saving and investment outcomes that have led to the fall in the world real interest rate. The results show that the key factors explaining movements in savings and investment are variables that evolve relatively slowly over time, such as labour force growth and the age structure of the world economy. The conclusions suggest that, over the coming years, it is unlikely that these slowly changing variables will be a source of significant changes in world real interest rates.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics
• December 21, 2006

  The “Maple Bond” Market

  Financial System Review - December 2006 James Hately

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
• December 21, 2006

  Are Canadian Banks Efficient? A Canada-U.S. Comparison

  Financial System Review - December 2006 Jason Allen, Walter Engert, Ying Liu

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
• December 21, 2006

  Credit in a Tiered Payments System

  Financial System Review - December 2006 Alexandra Lai, Nikil Chande, Sean O'Connor

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles